067
FXUS66 KLOX 180037
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
437 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/143 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. FOR SOME COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
17/139 PM.
FAIR SKIES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
DAY, ALTHO SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WARMEST VLYS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE E PAC THRU EARLY TUE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SW CA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT, WITH
H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 576-577 DAM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE INTO NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON WED THEN DROP SE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND THU, WITH LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS TO 567-572
DAM BY LATE THU AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOME
COASTAL AND VLY AREAS AND EVEN INTERIOR AREAS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN FOR
PART OF THE SOUTHERN L.A. COUNTY COAST LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. IN ADDITION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS MAINLY TO SLO COUNTY
THRU THE DAY ON WED.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS TO THE N AND E WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AND
INCREASING ON WED. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD THEN TURN OFFSHORE
WED NIGHT AND THU, WITH LARGE OFFSHORE TRENDS DURING THE DAY THU.
PERIODS OF GUSTY N TO NE WINDS, POSSIBLY TO LOW END ADVISORY
LEVELS, CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE MTNS AND SOUTHERN SBA
COUNTY TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING, STRONGEST NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU, THEN TRANSITION TO GUSTY NE WINDS AND SPREAD OVER THE USUAL
OFFSHORE WIND CORRIDORS IN VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON TUE, EXCEPT FOR THE INTERIOR
VLYS OF SLO COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ON WED, MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME ON THU WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES, AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THE WARMEST DAY
OVERALL OF THE NEXT THREE WILL BE WED WHEN TEMPS IN THE WARMEST
INLAND COAST AND VLYS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
17/142 PM.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EC DETERMINISTIC, WHILE THE MEAN ENSEMBLES WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THRU FRI MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OFF THE COAST BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN LINGER FOR THE MOST
PART OVER SRN CA FRI NIGHT THRU MON.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERALL. PERIODS OF GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STRONGEST THU NIGHT AND FRI
MORNING AS EC/GFS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE DECENTLY
OFFSHORE TO THE N AND E. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTY, AND THE USUAL WIND-
PRONE CORRIDORS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. BY
SUN, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 7-14 DEG ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. FOR MON, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM EVEN MORE TO
ABOUT 8-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST INLAND COASTAL AREAS,
VLYS AND LOWER MTNS COULD REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR SUN AND
MON.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO "FANTASY LAND," NEITHER THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY GREAT CHANCES
FOR RAIN THRU AT LEAST THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
18/0037Z.
AROUND 0000Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 700 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS UP TO AROUND 1500 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
DESERT TERMINALS AND KSBA.
OTHERWISE, LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS. THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z-17Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF KNTD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 17Z.
KLAX...THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 08Z, HIGHEST BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
EARLY AS 15Z OR AS LATE AS 17Z. ANY EASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 7
KNOTS ARE VERY LIKELY, BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST
WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 KNOTS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 08Z, HIGHEST BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
17/106 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LULLS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS (ZONE PZZ670). SEAS WILL ALSO REACH SCA
LEVELS AT TIMES THIS WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE WATERS
AROUND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SIMILAR
CHANCES FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, THERE IS A 80-90% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL NW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWER CHANCES FOR SCA
WINDS ON TUESDAY (40-50% CHANCE), FOLLOWED BY A 60-70% CHANCE FOR
SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS THIS THROUGH EVENING IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL, WITH A CHANCE (10-20%) OF LOCAL GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. LOWER CHANCES (30-40%) TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES (60-70%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDS ARE THEN NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE SBA
CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY,
WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF NE-E SCA LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE
FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...BLACK/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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