897
FXUS66 KLOX 180533
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
933 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
17/857 PM.
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. FOR SOME COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (MON-THU)
17/933 PM.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND MOST OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PUSHING
THE STORM TRACK BACK TO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
MOSTLY BELOW 30 MPH. GRADIENTS WEDNESDAY START OFF LIGHTLY
OFFSHORE BUT QUICKLY TREND ONSHORE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
OVER NORTHERN OREGON. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS BUT THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP IT COOLER AT THE COAST. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE AND DOWN THROUGH
THE THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS, BUT AGAIN MOSTLY
UNDER 30 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OREGON MOVES INLAND AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA, TAKING AN INSIDE SLIDER ROUTE. HEIGHTS LOWER SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES SO THERE ARE SOME
CONFLICTING FORCES AT WORK.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
17/142 PM.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EC DETERMINISTIC, WHILE THE MEAN ENSEMBLES WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THRU FRI MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OFF THE COAST BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN LINGER FOR THE MOST
PART OVER SRN CA FRI NIGHT THRU MON.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERALL. PERIODS OF GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STRONGEST THU NIGHT AND FRI
MORNING AS EC/GFS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE DECENTLY
OFFSHORE TO THE N AND E. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTY, AND THE USUAL WIND-
PRONE CORRIDORS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. BY
SUN, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 7-14 DEG ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. FOR MON, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM EVEN MORE TO
ABOUT 8-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST INLAND COASTAL AREAS,
VLYS AND LOWER MTNS COULD REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR SUN AND
MON.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO "FANTASY LAND," NEITHER THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY GREAT CHANCES
FOR RAIN THRU AT LEAST THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
18/0037Z.
AROUND 0000Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 700 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS UP TO AROUND 1500 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 14 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
DESERT TERMINALS AND KSBA.
OTHERWISE, LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS. THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z-17Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND FOR IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF KNTD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 17Z.
KLAX...THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 08Z, HIGHEST BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
EARLY AS 15Z OR AS LATE AS 17Z. ANY EASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 7
KNOTS ARE VERY LIKELY, BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST
WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 KNOTS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 08Z, HIGHEST BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
17/918 PM.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE, THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NORTHWEST GALES THIS EVENING, HIGHEST FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A LIKELY CHANCE OF SOME LULLS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTION. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF NORTHWEST GALES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, SCA CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY (50-60 PERCENT)
CHANCE THAT SCA SEAS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MODERATE-TO-HIGH (40-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING TO A
LIKELY-TO-IMMINENT (70-80 PERCENT) CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT, SCA LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL,
THERE IS A LOW-TO-MODERATE (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY EVENING, INCREASING TO A
HIGH- TO-LIKELY (50-70 PERCENT) CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY, WHERE THERE
IS A MODERATE (30-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA NORTHEAST TO EAST
LEVEL WINDS NEARSHORE FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU.
BEACHES
17/925 PM.
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE AT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST-FACING SHORES NORTH
OF THE LOS ANGELES-VENTURA COUNTY LINE. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT WEST-FACING SHORES IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF HIGH SURF
REDEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AT SIMILAR BEACHES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 645-650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/SIRARD
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
BEACHES...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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