533
FXUS66 KLOX 181852
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1052 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
18/933 AM.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, EXPECT FOR PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THIS WEEK, WITH MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
18/933 AM.
***UPDATE***
MODERATE OFFSHORE TRENDS HAS SUPPORTED LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THIS MORNING FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LA COUNTY. WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRY TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF LA COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
COMPETING MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE.
WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THE FOCUS OF
TODAY WILL BE WINDS WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF GENERALLY LOW END
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CA.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG ARE CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
LA BASIN, HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS SWEEPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MAY DISTURB THE INVERSION AND LEAD TO RAPID DISSIPATION OF
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LA BASIN. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW MAY
KEEP CLOUDS AT BAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOCAL INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR, IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, DUE TO RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WEAKER
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY
WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, LARGELY IN THE MID 60S WITH SOME
INTERIOR VALLEYS REACHING THE LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW,
THUS ANOTHER BUMP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, AN TROUGHING PATTERN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL NUDGE 500 MB HEIGHTS DOWN AND BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, HOWEVER WITH SLIGHT COOLING LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS LIKE THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
18/331 AM.
FRIDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO RISE AS A
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FLOW PATTERN AT THE SURFACE,
MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH- NORTHEAST. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT PRESENT, WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DUE
TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHEAST GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE SANTA ANA WIND PRONE CORRIDOR OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS). SUNDAY HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
SOAR TO 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BE SIMILARLY WARM.
THE WARMING TREND WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMPLE SUNSHINE (INCLUDING
LONGER DAYS), UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, AND A PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NO INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
AVIATION
18/1852Z.
AT 18Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2200 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4300 FEET AND 10 CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND EVOLUTION AT KSBP AND KSMX, WITH A MIXTURE
OF NE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS AND NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH NE LLWS.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER THAT. MOST AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A
20-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOXR KSMO KLAX KLGB KBUR.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS FROM 10-16Z ON WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY AT TIMES 08-17Z ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
18/911 AM.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
EXPANDING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON
THURSDAY, THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA THROUGH
SANTA MONICA, AND A LOW CHANCE OF SUCH WINDS FROM ORANGE COUNTY TO
CATALINA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR LOW-END SCA NORTHWEST WINDS BEYOND 20
MILES FROM SHORE.
THE CURRENTLY LARGE SCA-LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEAS ARE RUNNING LARGER THAN MODELS ARE
INDICATING, AS IS USUAL FOR LARGER SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...RS
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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