620
FXUS66 KLOX 182254
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
254 PM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/253 PM.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, EXPECT FOR PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG NEAR THE COAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
18/253 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE MAIN TARGET
FOR AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT DUE TO AN INSIDE SLIDER SLOWLY PASSING
TO OUR NORTHEAST. LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND SOME COAST AND VALLEYS, MOST
NOTABLY THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS NEAR THE LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY BORDER.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A MODERATE SANTA ANA IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME WITH OFFSHORE (LAX-DAG) GRADIENTS PEAKING BETWEEN -4 TO -6
WITH A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
TYPICAL SANTA ANA CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SANTA ANA EVENT.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/253 PM.
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIND FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR MANY AREAS AS A RIDGE PEAKS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S
POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST AREAS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE,
POSSIBLY LEADING TO ADVISORY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOCUSED
ACROSS PRONE AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ONSHORE TRENDS OR A POSSIBLE EDDY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE INCREASED MARINE
INFLUENCE MAY REDUCE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL TO NONE THROUGH TO NEAR THE END OF THE
MONTH IF NOT INTO EARLY MARCH, WHEN THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR WET
WEATHER TO POTENTIALLY RETURN.
AVIATION
18/1852Z.
AT 18Z OVER KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2200 FEET DEEP, WITH AN
INVERSION TOP AT 4300 FEET AND 10 CELSIUS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND EVOLUTION AT KSBP AND KSMX, WITH A MIXTURE
OF NE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS AND NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH NE LLWS.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER THAT. MOST AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A
20-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOXR KSMO KLAX KLGB KBUR.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS FROM 10-16Z ON WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY AT TIMES 08-17Z ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STAYING
BELOW 8 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
18/110 PM.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
EXPANDING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON
THURSDAY, THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA THROUGH
SANTA MONICA, AND A LOW CHANCE OF SUCH WINDS FROM ORANGE COUNTY TO
CATALINA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR LOW-END SCA NORTHWEST WINDS BEYOND 20
MILES FROM SHORE.
THE CURRENTLY LARGE SCA-LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEAS ARE RUNNING LARGER THAN MODELS ARE
INDICATING, AS IS USUAL FOR LARGER SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MUNROE
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...RS/RM
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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