097
FXUS66 KLOX 190539
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
939 PM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
18/906 PM.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY, EXPECT FOR PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
18/938 PM.
QUIET EVENING AGAIN WITH SO FAR LITTLE OR NO STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. MAY GET A FEW PATCHES NEAR THE COAST VERY LATE
TONIGHT, OTHERWISE JUST SOME OFF AND ON HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR SET TO TAKE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP THU AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT OFFSHORE PUSH AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING. MODELS STILL FORECASTING A 4-6MB OFFSHORE LAX-DAG
GRADIENT AND WITH 950 TEMPS AROUND 21C (70F), LOCAL HISTORICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS COAST/VALLEYS
OF LA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. FOR NOW HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE NBM 95TH PERCENTILE, WHICH
MATCHES PRETTY CLOSELY WITH THE NAM MET GUIDANCE, BUT IS STILL A
FEW DEGREES BELOW THE HISTORICAL GUIDANCE SO FORECAST HIGHS MAY
STILL RISE AS WE GET CLOSER IF FORECAST GRADIENTS REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS BUT
LATEST NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY. SEEMS
LIKE AT BEST A VERY LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR COAST/VALLEYS
(GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 35 MPH).
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
18/253 PM.
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIND FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH CONTINUED WARMING FOR MANY AREAS AS A RIDGE PEAKS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S
POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST AREAS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE,
POSSIBLY LEADING TO ADVISORY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FOCUSED
ACROSS PRONE AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ONSHORE TRENDS OR A POSSIBLE EDDY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST WHERE INCREASED MARINE
INFLUENCE MAY REDUCE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL TO NONE THROUGH TO NEAR THE END OF THE
MONTH IF NOT INTO EARLY MARCH, WHEN THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR WET
WEATHER TO POTENTIALLY RETURN.
AVIATION
18/2356Z.
AROUND 23Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 800 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2000 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH 04Z, THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN TIMING AND WINDS. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z AS COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES AT KPRB AND AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL
TERMINALS.
KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
18/930 PM.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN THE WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, EXPANDING
INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. THESE EXPANSE OF THE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF GALES FROM
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SOUTH TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF
LOW-END SCA LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA THROUGH SANTA MONICA, AND A
LOW CHANCE OF SUCH WINDS FROM ORANGE COUNTY TO CATALINA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND,
EXCEPT FOR LOW-END SCA NORTHWEST WINDS BEYOND 20 MILES FROM
SHORE.
THE CURRENTLY LARGE SCA-LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEAS ARE RUNNING LARGER THAN MODELS ARE
INDICATING, AS IS USUAL FOR LARGER SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 340-346-354. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/MUNROE
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...RS/RM
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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