511
FXUS66 KLOX 191230
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/343 AM.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY, EXPECT FOR PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
19/323 AM.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FOR THE LA BASIN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTS 40 TO 50
MPH OUT OF THE NORTH- TO- NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WIND PRONE
VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY (INCLUDING THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY, WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND AGOURA
HILLS/CALABASAS). WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLEASE SEE NPWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A MODERATE SANTA ANA
NORTHEAST WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
WIND PRONE CORRIDOR IN LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND THE SANTA LUCIA
MOUNTAINS IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TEMPERATURE
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTS AND VALLEYS. DAYTIME
HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, FOLLOWED BY A GREATER BUMP FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S TO BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY FOR LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
19/341 AM.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES, PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THIS WEEKEND, THE FLOW PATTERN AT SURFACE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP MOST CLOUDS AT BAY. THEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORED FOR
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MAY FACILITATE THE RETURN OF
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COASTS, WHICH MAY
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
STILL NO INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION
19/1228Z.
AT 12Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF L.A. COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF VENTURA COUNTY. LOW CLOUDS
WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS MAY AFFECT COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS KOXR
AND KLGB FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, WITH LESS OF A CHANCE THAT
CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO KLAX. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDS MAY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SALINAS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FROM 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING, AND FROM 10Z-17Z
THU MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD.
MARINE
19/419 AM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THIS MORNING, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU EVENING, WITH A 30%
CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM NEAR PT. CONCEPTION S TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND
TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
IN THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
THU. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SUN NIGHT.
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS S OF PT CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED (80% CHANCE) ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL N-NE WINDS FROM PT. MUGU TO SANTA MONICA
LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. SCA LEVEL NE WINDS ARE LIKELY (60%
CHANCE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU VERY LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING,
WITH A 20% CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND.
OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SUN NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 88-342-345-352-353-372-375>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 362-369>371-374. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
AM PST THURSDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).AVDAFDLOX
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...RS/RM
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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