356
FXUS66 KLOX 191914
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1114 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
SYNOPSIS
19/343 AM.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY, EXPECT FOR PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
19/807 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE FORECAST IS WELL ON-TRACK, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FOR THE LA BASIN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTS 40 TO 50
MPH OUT OF THE NORTH- TO- NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WIND PRONE
VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY (INCLUDING THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY, WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND AGOURA
HILLS/CALABASAS). WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PLEASE SEE NPWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A MODERATE SANTA ANA
NORTHEAST WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
WIND PRONE CORRIDOR IN LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND THE SANTA LUCIA
MOUNTAINS IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TEMPERATURE
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTS AND VALLEYS. DAYTIME
HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, FOLLOWED BY A GREATER BUMP FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S TO BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY FOR LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
19/341 AM.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES, PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THIS WEEKEND, THE FLOW PATTERN AT SURFACE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP MOST CLOUDS AT BAY. THEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORED FOR
SOUTHWEST SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MAY FACILITATE THE RETURN OF
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COASTS, WHICH MAY
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
STILL NO INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION
19/1913Z.
AT 17Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 CELSIUS.
LOCAL SYSTEM UPDATES AND OBSCURING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO MONITOR CHANGING CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DELAYS IN FORECAST UPDATES ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST AIRPORTS SHOULD STAY VFR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD EVOLUTION TONIGHT. CHANCES OF LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT KPRB (50%) KSMX (20%) KSBA (30%) KOXR (40%) KCMA
(30%) KSMO (60%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%). NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH WEAK-TO-MODERATE LLWS AT TIMES OVER
KSBP KVNY KBUR AND KSMO.
KLAX...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER WITHIN 5 MILES TO THE WEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IF THAT HAPPENS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
MVFR HZ AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS PUSHING BACK
IN AS EARLY AS 23-01Z. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WITH CLOUDS PUSHING BACK INTO
SOMETIME IN THE 04-08Z WINDOW. WHILE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH A RANGE OUT OUTCOMES
BETWEEN VLIFR AND IFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 08 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAT 20 KNOTS, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF LLWS
+/- 10-20 KNOTS.
MARINE
19/1111 AM.
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE MILE MAY EFFECT SOME WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF REFORMING TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS 20 MILES OFFSHORE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW-END SCA WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. THE WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF SCA-LEVEL WINDS FROM
VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA, AND A 20% CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY
COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 88-342-345-352-353-372-375>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON PST THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 362-369>371-374. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/COHEN
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...RS/RM
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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