945
FXUS66 KLOX 192227
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
227 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/226 PM.
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND THE VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WILL TURN OUT DRY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK, AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT THIS WEEKEND, TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S AND 80S IN MANY PLACES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
19/226 PM.
THE TAIL-END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. UPPER
SUPPORT PERIPHERAL TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT VERY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, GUSTS OF
45-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AS LAX-
BAKERSFIELD AND SBA-BAKERSFIELD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REACH
AROUND 5-6 MB -- STRONGEST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO INITIALLY FAVOR A SUNDOWNER WIND REGIME OVER SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
HIGH TERRAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH TIME, THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ORIENT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TO ALIGN WITH THE LAX-DAGGETT CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN
WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS GOING INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR WIND ADVISORIES TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES FOR WIND-PRONE AREAS IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. BY SATURDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RELATED SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER, AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
WILL FACILITATE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY
GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY
AREAS -- REACHING THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
19/226 PM.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA INTO SUNDAY, WHEN
IT IS PROJECTED TO HAVE BUILT EVEN FURTHER, CHARACTERIZED BY
500-MB HEIGHTS NEARING OR EXCEEDING 586 DAM. AND WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S -- PERHAPS UPPER 80S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS
SUCH AS WOODLAND HILLS. EVEN NEAR THE COAST IT SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ALTOGETHER SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF BY A DEGREE OR
TWO EACH DAY GOING INTO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE AREA PERIPHERAL TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
INTO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
19/1913Z.
AT 17Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE
MARINE INVERSION WAS 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 CELSIUS.
LOCAL SYSTEM UPDATES AND OBSCURING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO MONITOR CHANGING CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DELAYS IN FORECAST UPDATES ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST AIRPORTS SHOULD STAY VFR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD EVOLUTION TONIGHT. CHANCES OF LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT KPRB (50%) KSMX (20%) KSBA (30%) KOXR (40%) KCMA
(30%) KSMO (60%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%). NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH WEAK-TO-MODERATE LLWS AT TIMES OVER
KSBP KVNY KBUR AND KSMO.
KLAX...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER WITHIN 5 MILES TO THE WEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IF THAT HAPPENS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
MVFR HZ AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS PUSHING BACK
IN AS EARLY AS 23-01Z. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WITH CLOUDS PUSHING BACK INTO
SOMETIME IN THE 04-08Z WINDOW. WHILE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH A RANGE OUT OUTCOMES
BETWEEN VLIFR AND IFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY EAST WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 08 KNOTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAT 20 KNOTS, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF LLWS
+/- 10-20 KNOTS.
MARINE
19/215 PM.
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM IN SPOTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS 20 MILES OFFSHORE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW-END SCA WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MALIBU THURSDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF
SCA-LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA, A 20% CHANCE FROM
THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND, AND A 20% CHANCE
NEARSHORE ON THE CENTRAL COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 88-342-345-352-353-372-375>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON PST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 362-369>371-374. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...COHEN
AVIATION...KITTELL
MARINE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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