644
FXUS66 KLOX 201158
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 AM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/812 PM.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOME COAST AND VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT THIS WEEKEND,
TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S IN MANY PLACES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
20/347 AM.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL YIELD OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING 25 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE I-5
CORRIDOR, SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, SANTA
SUSANA MOUNTAINS, AND THE NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, AND EXTEND INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS, THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND
THE MALIBU COAST. WIND ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE TODAY NOON,
BUT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BUILD THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO FRIDAY FOR
THE WIND PRONE CORRIDOR OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MOSTLY IN THE 70S, AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THIS MORNING. THEN FRIDAY, WEAK-TO-MODERATE
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LEAD TO MORE WARMING, BRINGING HIGHS TO 7 TO
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WILL
BE COMMON. SATURDAY, WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION, THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST WILL BURN OFF
THIS MORNING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, AS
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DRIVE AWAY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
20/357 AM.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY, THEN BREAKING DOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON SUNDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO- MID
80S WILL BE COMMON, WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AREA SUCH AS
WOODLAND HILLS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FAVORED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
20/0851Z.
AROUND 07Z, THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 2800 FT
WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 17 C.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, WITH SCATTERED LIFR TO IFR
POSSIBLE AT ALL COASTAL SITES AND KPRB THROUGH 17Z. CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO SCATTER AND REFORM FOR COASTAL SITES
DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AT COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER THROUGH 20Z.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES, AS VSBYS ARE LIKELY
TO VARY BETWEEN 1/2-4SM AND CIGS BETWEEN OVC002-OVC008 FROM 09Z TO
16Z THU. ANY EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF, WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.
MARINE
19/846 PM.
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM IN SPOTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS 20 MILES OFFSHORE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW-END SCA WINDS TONIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MALIBU THURSDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA-LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA, A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND,
AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE NEARSHORE ON THE CENTRAL COAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR
ZONES 88-342-345-352-353-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW/COHEN
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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