785
FXUS66 KLOX 201720
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PST THU FEB 20 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SYNOPSIS
20/359 AM.
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME COAST AND VALLEYS THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT THIS WEEKEND IN TO
NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S IN MANY PLACES. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
20/832 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LAX COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL AS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO/SBA/VENTURA COUNTIES WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
MORNING SOUNDING DATA INDICATES VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION,
UNDER 500 FEET. AS FOR WINDS, CURRENTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS,
GUSTING 35-55 MPH, ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE
FAVORED VALLEYS.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, TWO MAIN ISSUES WILL
BE DENSE FOG AND THE WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DENSE FOG, EXPECT
THE DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SO, WILL LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 900 AM. AS FOR THE WINDS, WILL EXPECT
THE WINDS TO START TO DIMINISH AFTER NOON TODAY. SO, WILL LIKELY
LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT NOON (ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THE ADVISORIES WILL JUST BE EXTENDED). THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SO, WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SANTA
ANA WIND CORRIDOR WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WILL
EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT 900 AM AND MAKE MY DECISION ABOUT
THE WIND ADVISORIES AT NOON.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AN INSIDE SLIDER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL YIELD OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING 25 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE I-5
CORRIDOR, SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, SANTA
SUSANA MOUNTAINS, AND THE NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, AND EXTEND INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS, THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, AND
THE MALIBU COAST. WIND ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE TODAY NOON,
BUT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BUILD THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO FRIDAY FOR
THE WIND PRONE CORRIDOR OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MOSTLY IN THE 70S, AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THIS MORNING. THEN FRIDAY, WEAK-TO-MODERATE
SANTA ANA WINDS WILL LEAD TO MORE WARMING, BRINGING HIGHS TO 7 TO
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WILL
BE COMMON. SATURDAY, WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION, THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST WILL BURN OFF
THIS MORNING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, AS
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DRIVE AWAY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
20/357 AM.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY, THEN BREAKING DOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON SUNDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO- MID
80S WILL BE COMMON, WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST AREA SUCH AS
WOODLAND HILLS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FAVORED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
20/1719Z.
AT 1620Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MARINE DEPTH OF 300 FEET AND AN
INVERSION TOPPED AT 1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
IMPACT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER TAN FCST. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
IN SLO COUNTY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, AND VTA AND LA COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDS AT KPRB (20%), KSMO (20%), KLAX (20%), AND KLGB (30%)
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CONDS WILL TRANSITION TO
VFR BY 20Z A THE LATEST, THEN VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VV001-OVC004 CIGS AND
VSBYS 1/4SM TO 1SM BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
AN EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 07Z AND 17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD.
MAX WIND GUSTS MAY BE 10 KT HIGHER THAN FCST. RAPID WIND SHIFTS
IN DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF LOW TO MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE 00Z THRU 18Z.
MARINE
20/744 AM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS/SEAS THRU LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FRI THRU MON, THOUGH SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVEL FRI
THRU SAT NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY MON NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THRU MON NIGHT.
IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL NE WINDS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W-NW WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. SCA LEVEL NE
WINDS ARE LIKELY (60% CHC) FROM SANTA MONICA TO VENTURA OUT TO
ANACAPA AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON, WITH A 20% CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST TO
CATALINA ISLAND. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU MON
NIGHT.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR
ZONES 88-342-345-352-353-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...DB/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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