083
FXUS66 KLOX 202143
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
143 PM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
20/359 AM.
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME COAST AND VALLEYS THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP QUITE A BIT THIS WEEKEND IN TO
NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S IN MANY PLACES. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
20/141 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, INSIDE SLIDER WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK DIURNAL FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, THE MAIN CONCERN IS
WINDS. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
(NORTHEAST 25-40 KNOTS). HREF DATA INDICATES HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS 35-50 MPH TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SO, WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST,
WILL GO WITH WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE USUAL SANTA ANA WIND CORRIDOR
OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES, MENTIONING GUSTS 35-50 MPH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, DO NOT
ANTICIPATED ANYTHING MORE THAT LOCALIZED ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAK DIURNAL WINDS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ANTICIPATED.
OTHER THAN THE WIND, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ALTHOUGH
SOME STRATUS/DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE LA BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL VALLEYS WITH 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. JUST A VERY NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
20/141 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE SAME
SYNOPTIC PAGE. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EACH DAY). BY
THURSDAY, A CUTOFF FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND START TO MEANDER
TOWARDS THE AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PERSIST
ON MONDAY THEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF OFFSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL STRATUS/FOG ON MONDAY MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN STRATUS-FREE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF
CUTOFF LOWS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS, BUT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE
SOME ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF AREAS REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS. SO, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION
20/1719Z.
AT 1620Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MARINE DEPTH OF 300 FEET AND AN
INVERSION TOPPED AT 1000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
IMPACT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER TAN FCST. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
IN SLO COUNTY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, AND VTA AND LA COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDS AT KPRB (20%), KSMO (20%), KLAX (20%), AND KLGB (30%)
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CONDS WILL TRANSITION TO
VFR BY 20Z A THE LATEST, THEN VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR VV001-OVC004 CIGS AND
VSBYS 1/4SM TO 1SM BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
AN EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 07Z AND 17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD.
MAX WIND GUSTS MAY BE 10 KT HIGHER THAN FCST. RAPID WIND SHIFTS
IN DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF LOW TO MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE 00Z THRU 18Z.
MARINE
20/126 PM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS/SEAS THRU LATE TONIGHT, WITH WINDS DROP OFF IN
THE CENTRAL ZONE THE LATEST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THRU MONDAY, THEN CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 30% MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU EVENING.
IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W-NW WINDS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THRU EVENING. SCA LEVEL N TO NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70-80% CHC) NEARSHORE FROM SANTA MONICA TO VENTURA OUT TO
ANACAPA AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY
COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THRU MON NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 30-40% CHANCE FOR NW SCA
LEVEL WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PST
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 88-358-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 354-355. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 670-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...DB/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...MW/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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