051
FXUS66 KLOX 210655
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 PM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
20/729 PM.
PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WARMING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OUT IN
THE 70S AND 80S IN MANY PLACES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
20/841 PM.
AT UPPER LEVELS, INSIDE SLIDER WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK DIURNAL FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE CURRENT LAX-DAGGETT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -3.5 MB BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 MB ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, THE MAIN CONCERN IS
WINDS. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
(NORTHEAST 25-40 KNOTS). AS OF 8 PM, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
WIDESPREAD OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH, AND IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ACROSS WIND FAVORED MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILL AREAS.
AS A RESULT, WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE USUAL SANTA
ANA WIND CORRIDOR OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. FOR SANTA BARBARA AND
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN
LOCALIZED ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAK
DIURNAL WINDS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND NO
ADVISORIES WILL BE ANTICIPATED.
OTHER THAN THE WIND, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ALTHOUGH
SOME STRATUS/DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LA COUNTY COAST, INCLUDING LAX AND LONG BEACH. WITH A
VERY SHALLOW AND STRONG MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO BE DENSE IF IT FORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL VALLEYS WITH 70S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. JUST A VERY NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
20/141 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE SAME
SYNOPTIC PAGE. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (ALTHOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EACH DAY). BY
THURSDAY, A CUTOFF FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND START TO MEANDER
TOWARDS THE AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PERSIST
ON MONDAY THEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF OFFSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL STRATUS/FOG ON MONDAY MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN STRATUS-FREE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF
CUTOFF LOWS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS, BUT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE
SOME ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF AREAS REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS. SO, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION
21/0652Z.
AT 0502Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 1000
FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
IMPACT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER TAN FCST. LIGHT TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR
DURING THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
IN SLO COUNTY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY, AND VTA AND LA COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDS, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDS AT KPRB (20%), KSMO (20%), KLAX (50%), AND KLGB (50%)
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS DO
FORM, VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS BETWEEN 07Z AND
17Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF LOW TO MODERATE LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE THRU 18Z
FRIDAY.
MARINE
20/735 PM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) LEVEL WINDS/SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONE(PZZ673) THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT, OTHERWISE SCA WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, SCA WINDS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS
TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY, THEN CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 30% MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU EVENING.
IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, SCA LEVEL N TO NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY (70-80% CHC) NEARSHORE FROM SANTA MONICA TO VENTURA OUT
TO ANACAPA AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY
COAST TO CATALINA ISLAND. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THRU MON NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 30-40% CHANCE FOR NW SCA
LEVEL WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
88-358-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 354-355. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ZONE
673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/THOMPSON
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...DB/LEWIS/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page