941
FXUS66 KLOX 211637
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
837 AM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
21/345 AM.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SUNDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE THE WARMEST, BUT COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS MAY
PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DENSE FOG NEAR
THE COAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
21/828 AM.
***UPDATE***
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT SOME PATCHY STRATUS/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LA
COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS. MARINE INVERSION IS VERY
SHALLOW, UNDER 500 FEET IN DEPTH. AS FOR WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH, ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE USUAL
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE
WINDS. WILL EXPECT SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SANTA ANA WINDS ACROSS
VENTURA/LA COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS DROPPING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. SO, CURRENT SUITE OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR STRATUS/DENSE FOG, WILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING,
BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING CONFINED TO JUST THE MOST FAVORED
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON IN THE FAVORED COASTS AND VALLEYS, WITH GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAINS AND HILLS. LOW-END WIND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLAY WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. THIS
OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 72 AND 80 COMMON WHICH IS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 77 AND 85 WILL BE COMMON BY SUNDAY, WHICH IS 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW AND THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WEAKENING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD. MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THANKS TO THE RECENT RAIN.
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BE NEAR MANY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE EXACTLY WHERE IT
DEVELOPS. LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE MILE, BUT THE FOG COULD FORM OVER ANY
COASTAL AREA.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
21/342 AM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT PEAKS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND SOME MOUNTAINS, ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE
RANGES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON, LEAVING A 1030-35
MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS INTO THE -7.0 MILLIBAR
NEIGHBORHOOD WITH IS IN THE 97+TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE COASTAL SIDE WILL WARM UP AS A
RESULT. WHILE THERE IS A RANGE OF TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS THIS FAR
OUT, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW HIGHS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO. THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF SOLUTIONS HOWEVER THAT ARE
PROJECTING HIGHS ABOVE 90, INCLUDING ABOUT 25% OF THE SOLUTIONS
PROJECTING HIGHS BETWEEN 90 AND 98 FOR DOWNTOWN LA. WHILE 98 IS
VERY UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, 90 SEEMS VERY MUCH ON THE TABLE.
AVIATION
21/1203Z.
AT 0811Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 2300
FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
IMPACT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TIMING OF WIND GROUP
CHANGES MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS, AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER TAN FCST DURING PEAK WINDS AT KCMA AND KOXR. LIGHT TO
MODERATE LLWS AND TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FOR SLO COUNTY
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY, AND VTA AND LA COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
VSBY OF 1/4-2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT REACHING 8 KTS THROUGH 17Z FRI.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW TO MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 18Z
FRI.
MARINE
21/832 AM.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND/SEAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS/SEAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IN THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, N TO NE WIND GUSTS
ARE JUST BARELY REACHING SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING NEARSHORE FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND, AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY
NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 30-40% CHANCE FOR NW SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONES
650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL/THOMPSON
AVIATION...SCHOENFELD
MARINE...SCHOENFELD/LUND
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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