206
FXUS66 KLOX 212124
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
124 PM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
21/345 AM.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SUNDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE THE WARMEST, BUT COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS MAY
PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DENSE FOG NEAR
THE COAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
21/124 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE,
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
DIURNAL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE SHORT TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON, THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
200 PM. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AS FOR CLOUDS, SOME STRATUS/DENSE FOG WILL
BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF A REPEAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE BUILDING RIDGE AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY, WITH THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE GRADIENTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
21/124 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS START OUT IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT,
BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BOTH MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODELS DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY
WITH THE GFS MOVING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW OFF
OF OUR COAST.
FORECAST-WISE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
TYPE DAYS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO HINT
OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING AROUND RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY
FOR SOME AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A DRAMATIC NOSE
DIVE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A COOLING TREND. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD KEEP SOME AMOUNT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD ALSO INDICATE THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE NBM NUMBERS LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME AREAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANY FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME ARE VERY LOW.
AVIATION
21/2004Z.
AT 18Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 1100
FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 C.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF VLIFR-LIFR CONDS AT
KSBA, KOXR, AND KCMA 12Z-18Z SAT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NO
CIGS AT KSMO, KLAX, AND KLGB, AND IF CIGS DO ARRIVE, THERE IS A
40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS 07Z-18Z FRI.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS WITH A 20% CHANCE OF NO CIGS. THERE IS
A 40% CHANCE OF 1/4SM FG AND VV001 BETWEEN 07-18Z SAT. GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT REMAINING LESS THAN 6 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
21/121 PM.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND/SEAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS/SEAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IN THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, N TO NE WIND GUSTS
ARE JUST BARELY REACHING SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING NEARSHORE FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND, AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY
NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 30-40% CHANCE FOR NW SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...SCHOENFELD/LUND
SYNOPSIS...RK
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