369
FXUS66 KLOX 220546
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 PM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
21/945 PM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER, THE
WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
21/946 PM.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.
AN AREA OF STRATUS THAT BRIEFLY BROUGHT SOME DENSE FOG TO LA
COUNTY BEACHES BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO THE OC BUT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE STRATUS RETURNING NORTH
JUST AS THE HREF HAD BEEN SHOWING. SO EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE LA COUNTY BEACHES AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD POSE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR LAX AND OTHER
AIRFIELDS IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, A CLEAR NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT MID TO
HIGH 60S NEAR THE BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES TO AROUND
30 MPH BETWEEN THE HWY 14, 118, AND 126 CORRIDORS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, EXCEPT LESS
WIND INLAND AND AGAIN SOME ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS A 3.7MB LAX-DAG GRADIENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON, SO LIKELY LITTLE CHANGE AT THE COAST BUT A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING INLAND.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
21/124 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS START OUT IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT,
BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BOTH MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODELS DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY
WITH THE GFS MOVING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW OFF
OF OUR COAST.
FORECAST-WISE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
TYPE DAYS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO HINT
OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING AROUND RECORD LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY
FOR SOME AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A DRAMATIC NOSE
DIVE. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A COOLING TREND. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD KEEP SOME AMOUNT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD ALSO INDICATE THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE NBM NUMBERS LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME AREAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANY FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME ARE VERY LOW.
AVIATION
22/0134Z.
AROUND 0045Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 200 FEET DEEP AT
KLAX. THE TOP OF THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1200 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOS ANGELES
COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE
FORECAST FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN TIMING.
THERE IS A MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 05Z AND 16Z.
KLAX...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KLAX AFTER 04Z. LOWER CONDITIONS COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY AS 05Z,
OR AS LATE AS 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z. ANY EAST WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
21/121 PM.
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND/SEAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA WINDS/SEAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCA WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IN THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, N TO NE WIND GUSTS
ARE JUST BARELY REACHING SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING NEARSHORE FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND, AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY
NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 30-40% CHANCE FOR NW SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SCHOENFELD/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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