110
FXUS66 KLOX 221749
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
949 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/313 AM.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY OVER
INLAND AREAS, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AND MILD CONDITIONS NEAR
THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD WARMING LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS, WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO FOLLOW WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
22/813 AM.
***UPDATE***
VERY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRATUS/DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENTURA/LA
COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR WINDS, LOCAL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING 20-35 MPH, ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED
IN THE MORE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.
FORECAST-WISE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, NO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. CURRENT STRATUS/DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1000 AM
AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL WEEKEND THROUGH THE DAY WITH EVEN SOME
WEAK SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY, BUT COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE
TO THE GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE.
OVERALL, CURRENT FORECAST HAS GREAT HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM. SO, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST SUITE, ATTENTION TURNS TO POTENTIALLY WARM
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY-THURSDAY THEN SOME RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM FRIDAY HAVE WEAKENED AND SHRUNK TO
JUST THE MOST FAVORED HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE CASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
FORM ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE FAVORED
AREAS LIKE SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST, WILL NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OVER AREAS INLAND OF
THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 74 TO 84 WILL BE COMMON, WHICH
IS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS, A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP
DENSE FOG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE LONGER.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE LOW VISIBILITIES,
BUT LOS ANGELES COUNTY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ODDS. THIS
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL MODERATE BEACH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
22/333 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BUT NOT GO AWAY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE A
1030-35 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, THE
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
PROJECT THE LAX-BFL AND SBA-BFL GRADIENTS TO PEAK IN THE -7.0
MILLIBAR TERRITORY, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ON TOP OF THE
RELATIVE WARM PERIOD LEADING UP TO IT. WHILE THERE IS A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURE OUTCOMES THIS FAR OUT, AND THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS
TO SEE MOST HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THAT COMMON RANGE TO BE MORE IN THE 85 TO 95 DEGREE
RANGE - WHICH WOULD PUSH SOME COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS CLOSE TO
RECORDS. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE NBM IS
WAY UNDER-DOING THE TEMPERATURES, SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE NBM. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MILD, CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
HOTTEST LOCATIONS IF THAT WARMER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
MOST PROJECTIONS SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY AND PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS WARM, BUT WILL
LOWER FROM THE WEDNESDAY PEAK, THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A 20-30%
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. IF RAIN DOES MATERIALIZE, FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AMOUNTS AND RATES WILL BE LIGHT (UNDER 0.50
INCHES) WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION
22/1749Z.
AT 1610Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1400 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTY AIRFIELDS. TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KOXR, WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE FROM 12Z
TO 18Z SUN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING AT KCMA WITH
A 20% CHANCE OF CIGS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR CIGS AT KSMO FROM
06Z TO 12Z SUN, LOWER CHANCES THEREAFTER.
KLAX...MODERATE TO LOW (TIMING) CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 04Z AND DEPART AS LATE AS
18Z. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS (<1/2SM, <0VC002)
DURING THE TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
22/752 AM.
FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
PZZ670 AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PZZ673. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO A 40-50% CHANCE, AS WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND SCA LEVELS AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCES AROUND POINT CONCEPTION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SCA
CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WIND AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN THERE IS A
LOW- TO- MODERATE (20-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...KITTELL/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...SCHOENFELD/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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