148
FXUS66 KLOX 222143
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
143 PM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/313 AM.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY OVER
INLAND AREAS, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AND MILD CONDITIONS NEAR
THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD WARMING LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS, WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO FOLLOW WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
22/142 PM.
OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THEN WILL BE FLATTENED MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE GRADIENTS EACH DAY.
FORECAST-WISE, NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM AS THERE SHOULD BE THREE NICE "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" DAYS FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENTURA/LA COUNTIES. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS NO
STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO WARM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH RIDGE PEAKING IN
STRENGTH. AFTER SOME SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY (WITH UPTICK IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS), SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. AS
FOR WINDS, DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
22/142 PM.
FOR THE EXTENDED, 12Z MODELS REMAIN ON THE SAME SYNOPTIC PAGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS, RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THURSDAY
THEN MEANDERS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THEN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FORECAST-WISE, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A SPECTACULAR DAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM NOTICEABLY WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. BASED ON SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS,
THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN BE HIGHER. SO, THE POSSIBILITY OF
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCH CLOSELY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO MEANDER
SOUTHEAST, THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING ON THURSDAY THEN MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
VERY LITTLE QPF. HOWEVER, THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES DO HAVE SOME
MEMBERS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE NBM
NUMBERS. SO, THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF
ANY, WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT UPON THE
AREA.
AVIATION
22/1749Z.
AT 1610Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER. THERE WAS A SURFACED
BASED INVERSION WITH A TOP AT 1400 FT AND A TEMPERATURE OF 18 C.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTY AIRFIELDS. TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KOXR, WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS DO NOT ARRIVE FROM 12Z
TO 18Z SUN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING AT KCMA WITH
A 20% CHANCE OF CIGS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR CIGS AT KSMO FROM
06Z TO 12Z SUN, LOWER CHANCES THEREAFTER.
KLAX...MODERATE TO LOW (TIMING) CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 04Z AND DEPART AS LATE AS
18Z. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDS (<1/2SM, <0VC002)
DURING THE TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED
THRU THE FCST PD.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.
MARINE
22/1123 AM.
FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
PZZ670 AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ673. THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW-N WINDS FOR PZZ673 AND THE WATERS AROUND
PORT SAN LUIS (PZZ645) SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
HIGH CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AREAS
FAVORED WILL BE THE WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION, NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS, AND DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND - WITH A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT SCA
LEVELS ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, WIND AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOLLOWED BY A
30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...RK
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