500
FXUS66 KLOX 272049
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/135 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A
MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MOST AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF
GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY, THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS A RANGE OF
OUTCOMES, BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MAJOR IMPACTS IS VERY
LOW.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
27/137 PM.
A MIXTURE OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
AS THE FRINGES OF THE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTERACTS WITH A DEEP 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT THE TREND WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF OVERAGE
AND PERSISTENCE, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HILLY
AREAS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, AS COLD-AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES DOWN SOME ENERGY FROM THE 80 TO 100 KNOT JET OVER
CALIFORNIA. LOW-END WIND ADVISORIES (GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH) WILL BE
ISSUED SOON FOR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS TONIGHT, LIKE SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH COMMON OVER THE FOCUS AREAS LIKE THE SANTA
BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS, SEVERAL MOUNTAIN AREAS,
AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON SATURDAY BUT
DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE.
THESE WINDS WILL DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
OVER VENTURA AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO LIKELY BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES NEAR THE KERN COUNTY BORDER. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET, SOME MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES
COULD SEE UP TO ON INCH OF SNOW AND SOME ICY ROADS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME EACH DAY THANKS
TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/149 PM.
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A WEEK OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. AN
ENERGETIC (120 TO 140 KNOT JET CENTERED OVER EUREKA) BUT
ULTIMATELY MOISTURE- STARVED STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WEAKENING ALONG THE WAY.
RAIN IS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, WITH TOTALS OF
0.25-0.50 INCHES COMMON. RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS LOWER TO THE
SOUTH, WITH TOTALS UNDER 0.25 INCHES IF ANY. ALL THE ENSEMBLES ARE
IN LINE WITH THIS LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH THANKS TO THE ENERGY FROM THAT AFOREMENTIONED JET.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CARRIES WITH IT A WIDER RANGE OF OUTCOMES SO
STAY TUNED, BUT THE RISK OF MAJOR IMPACTS IS VERY LOW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE PROJECTIONS SHOW A SIMILAR ANATOMY OF THE STORM, WITH A DEEP
AND COLD LOW (530-530 DECAMETERS AT 500 MILLIBARS) FROM ALASKA
PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST COAST. THEY DIFFER HOWEVER IN THE SPEED AND
PATH OF THE LOW, WHICH MEANS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THE NUMBER OF PROJECTIONS SHOWING FLOOD-INDUCING HEAVY RAIN
REMAINS VERY SMALL (LESS THAN 10%), WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS/RATES AND MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE STORM COULD COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT
OR AS DELAYED AS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE WINDOW AT THIS POINT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW 5,000 FEET AT TIMES, SO THIS COULD BE MORE OF A SNOW MAKER
THAN A RAIN MAKER, BUT THAT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PATH OF THE UNCERTAIN
STORM.
AVIATION
27/1643Z.
AT 1630Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 3000 FT.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION TOP WAS AROUND 4500 FT WITH A TEMP
OF 10 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OVERALL FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DESERT TAFS,
BUT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS. LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL/VALLEY SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. CURRENT MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FOR COASTAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FOR THE VALLEYS SITES. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
THAT MVFR CIGS DON'T DEVELOP AT KSMX...KSBP AND KPRB, A 50% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS AT KSBA...KOXR...KCMA AND A 30% CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS
DON'T OCCUR AT KSMO...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS 18Z-04Z. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING (COULD BE +/- 4 HOURS OF
CURRENT 06Z FORECAST). THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS 14Z-20Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A
30% CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL NOT OCCUR.
MARINE
27/1227 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PZZ673/676. ON SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS (WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON TUESDAY).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS (WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS). FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
27/1227 PM.
A LARGE, MODERATE-LONG PERIOD, WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. SURF HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY: 10-15 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET
ON THE CENTRAL COAST...8-12 FEET ON VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES AND 6-9
FEET LOS ANGELES COAST. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...DB/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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