014
FXUS66 KLOX 280301
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
801 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/752 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM HAS A RANGE OF OUTCOMES, BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND MAJOR IMPACTS IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
27/137 PM.
A MIXTURE OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
AS THE FRINGES OF THE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTERACTS WITH A DEEP 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT THE TREND WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF OVERAGE
AND PERSISTENCE, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HILLY
AREAS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, AS COLD-AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES DOWN SOME ENERGY FROM THE 80 TO 100 KNOT JET OVER
CALIFORNIA. LOW-END WIND ADVISORIES (GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH) WILL BE
ISSUED SOON FOR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS TONIGHT, LIKE SOUTHWEST
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH COMMON OVER THE FOCUS AREAS LIKE THE SANTA
BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS, SEVERAL MOUNTAIN AREAS,
AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON SATURDAY BUT
DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE.
THESE WINDS WILL DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
OVER VENTURA AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO LIKELY BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES NEAR THE KERN COUNTY BORDER. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET, SOME MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES
COULD SEE UP TO ON INCH OF SNOW AND SOME ICY ROADS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME EACH DAY THANKS
TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
27/149 PM.
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A WEEK OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. AN
ENERGETIC (120 TO 140 KNOT JET CENTERED OVER EUREKA) BUT
ULTIMATELY MOISTURE- STARVED STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WEAKENING ALONG THE WAY.
RAIN IS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, WITH TOTALS OF
0.25-0.50 INCHES COMMON. RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS LOWER TO THE
SOUTH, WITH TOTALS UNDER 0.25 INCHES IF ANY. ALL THE ENSEMBLES ARE
IN LINE WITH THIS LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE GUSTS
OF 30 TO 50 MPH THANKS TO THE ENERGY FROM THAT AFOREMENTIONED JET.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CARRIES WITH IT A WIDER RANGE OF OUTCOMES SO
STAY TUNED, BUT THE RISK OF MAJOR IMPACTS IS VERY LOW. THE MAJORITY
OF THE PROJECTIONS SHOW A SIMILAR ANATOMY OF THE STORM, WITH A DEEP
AND COLD LOW (530-530 DECAMETERS AT 500 MILLIBARS) FROM ALASKA
PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST COAST. THEY DIFFER HOWEVER IN THE SPEED AND
PATH OF THE LOW, WHICH MEANS THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THE NUMBER OF PROJECTIONS SHOWING FLOOD-INDUCING HEAVY RAIN
REMAINS VERY SMALL (LESS THAN 10%), WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS/RATES AND MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE STORM COULD COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT
OR AS DELAYED AS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE WINDOW AT THIS POINT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW 5,000 FEET AT TIMES, SO THIS COULD BE MORE OF A SNOW MAKER
THAN A RAIN MAKER, BUT THAT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PATH OF THE UNCERTAIN
STORM.
AVIATION
28/0256Z.
AT 2146Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 5000 FT. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION TOP WAS AROUND 6000 FT WITH A TEMP OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL/VALLEY SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERLY WINDS FOR LA VALLEYS AND COASTS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LIFT OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS, BUT COULD SEE CIGS CHANGE BETWEEN
LIFR/IFR AND MVFR. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST TAF SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. CIGS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY,
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD START LIFTING AROUND 12-14Z. GOOD CHANCE NE-E
WINDS NEAR 8-10 KNOTS 13Z-19Z, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 15
KT.
KBUR...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
27/754 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PZZ673/676. ON SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS (WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON TUESDAY).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS (WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS). FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS. FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS,
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
27/1227 PM.
A LARGE, MODERATE-LONG PERIOD, WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. SURF HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY: 10-15 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET
ON THE CENTRAL COAST...8-12 FEET ON VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES AND 6-9
FEET LOS ANGELES COAST. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...RAT/SMITH
BEACHES...DB/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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