903
FXUS66 KLOX 281142
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
442 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
27/752 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM HAS A RANGE OF OUTCOMES, BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND MAJOR IMPACTS IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
28/339 AM.
STORM SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGHING AND
SEND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
RESULTING IN A MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK WITH VARIABLE COVERAGE.
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE SUNSHINE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE THE I-5 CORRIDOR. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS, STRONGER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS POST- FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ENERGY FROM A UPPER LEVEL JET TO MIX DON TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS, MOST
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR), AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND ADVISORIES
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS FAVORED FOOTHILLS AREAS WILL
LAST INTO THIS MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE INTERIOR NORTHERN SLOPES (NEAR THE KERN COUNTY BORDER) TO
YIELD LIGHT OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND ICY ROADS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION, FOCUSED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
TOTAL UP TO AROUND 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY, WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH POSSIBLE FOR SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
7000 FT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
TODAY AND SATURDAY MOST COAST AND VALLEYS WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUNSHINE. SUNDAY, THE NEXT
WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARDS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
28/441 AM.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FAVORED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT NW-W WINDS.
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE TUESDAY, RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOME
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL RISK
OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OR MAJOR FLOODING IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LEAST ONE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE REGION, HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE
MOST LIKELY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH A VERY SMALL POTENTIAL OF HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0-2.0
INCHES. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COLD FOR APRIL,
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK, AND MAY RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO 4000-5000 FT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK
OUT OF THE 60S EACH DAY.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD THERE IS MUCH INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, THUS CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD LOW TO
APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING UNSEASONABLY SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY AT MOUNTAIN PASS LEVELS, AND CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
28/0256Z.
AT 2146Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 5000 FT. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION TOP WAS AROUND 6000 FT WITH A TEMP OF 11
DEGREES CELSIUS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL/VALLEY SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERLY WINDS FOR LA VALLEYS AND COASTS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LIFT OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS, BUT COULD SEE CIGS CHANGE BETWEEN
LIFR/IFR AND MVFR. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST TAF SITES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. CIGS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY,
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD START LIFTING AROUND 12-14Z. GOOD CHANCE NE-E
WINDS NEAR 8-10 KNOTS 13Z-19Z, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 15
KT.
KBUR...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
27/754 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PZZ673/676. ON SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS (WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON TUESDAY).
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COMBINATION OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS (WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS). FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS. ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 50%
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
LEVELS. FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS,
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONES
349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...RAT/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...RK/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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