294
FXUS66 KLOX 281306
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
606 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/445 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY,
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
28/339 AM.
STORM SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGHING AND
SEND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
RESULTING IN A MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK WITH VARIABLE COVERAGE.
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE SUNSHINE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE THE I-5 CORRIDOR. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS, STRONGER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS POST- FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ENERGY FROM A UPPER LEVEL JET TO MIX DON TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS, MOST
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR), AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND ADVISORIES
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS FAVORED FOOTHILLS AREAS WILL
LAST INTO THIS MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE INTERIOR NORTHERN SLOPES (NEAR THE KERN COUNTY BORDER) TO
YIELD LIGHT OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND ICY ROADS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION, FOCUSED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
TOTAL UP TO AROUND 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY, WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH POSSIBLE FOR SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
7000 FT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
TODAY AND SATURDAY MOST COAST AND VALLEYS WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUNSHINE. SUNDAY, THE NEXT
WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARDS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
28/441 AM.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FAVORED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT NW-W WINDS.
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE TUESDAY, RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOME
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL RISK
OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OR MAJOR FLOODING IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LEAST ONE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE REGION, HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE
MOST LIKELY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH A VERY SMALL POTENTIAL OF HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0-2.0
INCHES. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COLD FOR APRIL,
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK, AND MAY RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO 4000-5000 FT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK
OUT OF THE 60S EACH DAY.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD THERE IS MUCH INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, THUS CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD LOW TO
APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING UNSEASONABLY SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY AT MOUNTAIN PASS LEVELS, AND CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
28/1304Z.
AT 12Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO TRUE MARINE INVERSION, BUT THERE WAS
A MOIST LATER TO AROUND 7000 FEET.
CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING,
AND HAVE PUSHED INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN INTO THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. CONDS WERE MOSTLY MVFR OR HIGH IFR, EXCEPT LIFR TO VLIFR
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS, AND LOCALLY IN
COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING TODAY,
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES, IN THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND NEAR THE
COAST THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS AND TURBULENCE.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES. CONDS WILL BE
MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR IN THE FOOTHILLS/MTNS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 17Z. THERE
IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 07Z-16Z SAT. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT OF 8 TO 10 KT FROM 11Z-17Z SAT.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 17Z. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF MVFR TO HIGH IFR CIGS AFTER 07Z SAT.
MARINE
28/555 AM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THRU SAT
EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVELS. WINDS WILL LIKELY (70% CHANCE) REACH GALE FORCE IN THE
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (PZZ673/676) THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT,
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF GALES IN THE NORTHERN ZONE (PZZ670). FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MON, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS MON NIGHT,
THEN SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
IN THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THRU SAT EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. WINDS WILL LIKELY (70% CHANCE) REACH SCA
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS TODAY AND SAT. FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING, WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TUE AFTERNOON/EVE.
IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THRU SAT MORNING, SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS (80% CHANCE) MUCH OF THE TIME
FROM THIS MORNING THRU SAT EVENING, WITH A BRIEF DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS NEARSHORE SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY (80%
CHANCE) IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THRUBCHAFDLOX
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALES IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE THIS EVENING. SCA CONDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THRU MON. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING, THEN SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TUE
AFTERNOON/EVE.
BEACHES
28/606 AM.
A VERY LARGE, MODERATELY LONG PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SAT, BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
TO THE BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AT
10-15 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST...8-12
FEET ON VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES AND 6-9 FEET LOS ANGELES COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND
MORNING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 340-346>348-354. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 350-352-353-376-377-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/SCHOENFELD
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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