946
FXUS66 KLOX 281650
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/937 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)
28/339 AM.
STORM SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGHING AND
SEND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
RESULTING IN A MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK WITH VARIABLE COVERAGE.
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE SUNSHINE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE THE I-5 CORRIDOR. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS, STRONGER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS POST- FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ENERGY FROM A UPPER LEVEL JET TO MIX DON TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS, MOST
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR), AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND ADVISORIES
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS FAVORED FOOTHILLS AREAS WILL
LAST INTO THIS MORNING. BY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE INTERIOR NORTHERN SLOPES (NEAR THE KERN COUNTY BORDER) TO
YIELD LIGHT OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND ICY ROADS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION, FOCUSED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
TOTAL UP TO AROUND 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY, WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH POSSIBLE FOR SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
7000 FT THROUGH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
TODAY AND SATURDAY MOST COAST AND VALLEYS WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED SUNSHINE. SUNDAY, THE NEXT
WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARDS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
28/441 AM.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FAVORED TO BE THE STRONGEST ON
TUESDAY, WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT NW-W WINDS.
FORECAST MODELS START TO DIVERGE TUESDAY, RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOME
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL RISK
OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OR MAJOR FLOODING IMPACTS REMAIN LOW.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LEAST ONE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE REGION, HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE
MOST LIKELY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH A VERY SMALL POTENTIAL OF HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0-2.0
INCHES. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COLD FOR APRIL,
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK, AND MAY RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO 4000-5000 FT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK
OUT OF THE 60S EACH DAY.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD THERE IS MUCH INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, THUS CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COLD LOW TO
APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING UNSEASONABLY SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY AT MOUNTAIN PASS LEVELS, AND CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
28/1649Z.
AT 1730Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO TRUE MARINE INVERSION, BUT THERE
WAS A MOIST LATER UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP
MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PER
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SO, TAF PACKAGE
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS WELL AS SOME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LLWS
AND TURBULENCE ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-18Z. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 7 KNOTS 10Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-18Z.
MARINE
28/949 AM.
IN THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THRU
SATURDAY EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. WINDS WILL LIKELY (70% CHANCE) REACH GALE
FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (PZZ673/676) THIS AFTERNOON THRU
LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF GALES IN THE NORTHERN ZONE
(PZZ670). FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE)
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THRU SATURDAY EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS. WINDS WILL LIKELY (70% CHANCE) REACH SCA
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY. FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THRU SATURDAY MORNING, SEAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA
LEVELS. WINDS WILL REACH SCA LEVELS (80% CHANCE) MUCH OF THE TIME
FROM THIS MORNING THRU SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A BRIEF DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS NEARSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
(80% CHANCE) IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALES IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE THIS
EVENING. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEACHES
28/606 AM.
A VERY LARGE, MODERATELY LONG PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SAT, BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
TO THE BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AT
10-15 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST...8-12
FEET ON VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES AND 6-9 FEET LOS ANGELES COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND
MORNING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 340-346>348-354. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 350-352-353-376-377-379. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...SCHOENFELD
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...DB/RAT
BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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