724
FXUS66 KLOX 282133
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
28/1259 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
28/219 PM.
THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO SOME OF THE
AREA HAS MOVED EAST WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE GRAPEVINE REGION AS MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UP
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 5000 FEET
SO NO ICING CONCERNS FOR THE GRAPEVINE BUT WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
50 MPH AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED IN AND BELOW THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ALONG MOST COASTAL AREAS.
THIS COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
SUNDAY. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE GETTING JUST THE TAIL END OF
THIS STORM SUNDAY WITH ALL THE BEST DYNAMICS AND COLDER AIR WELL
TO THE NORTH. PW'S DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1" LATER SUNDAY AS THE
SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 40N. THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AROUND 40KT HIT THE SOUTHWEST
FACING SANTA LUCIAS IN SLO COUNTY. BUT EVEN THERE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS REMAIN HEAVILY CLUSTERED JUST UNDER A HALF INCH FOR THE
COAST, WHICH TRANSLATES TO AT MOST 1-1.5" IN THE COASTAL RANGES.
WITH PRIMARILY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW SO FAR NORTH
THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
TAPERING OFF TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
PT CONCEPTION. IT WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING THOUGH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 24 HOURS OR SO OF OFF AND ON DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN.
WITH THE WARMER MOISTURE SOURCE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOVE
8000 FEET SUNDAY, THEN LOWERING TO AROUND 6-7000 FEET MONDAY. NBM
POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW AND WERE BUMPED UP. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY LIGHT RAIN AND UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING, A 6HR POP MAY SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER-REPRESENT THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
28/232 PM.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER NEXT MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE REALLY CUT
BACK ON THE STRENGTH OF A SECOND SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WHAT ONCE APPEARED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AR RAIN EVENT NOW
LOOKS POTENTIALLY EVEN WEAKER THAN THE FIRST STORM. IN FACT, AT
LEAST HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW NO RAIN AT ALL AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM THE EC AND GFS
HAVE TRENDED MUCH DRIER AS WELL WITH A SYSTEM THAT MOSTLY TAKES AN
INSIDE TRACK THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AND A MOISTURE
PLUME THAT NEVER REALLY CONNECTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. THERE ARE
STILL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BUT ON THE LOWER SIDE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE INSIDE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS NEXT STORM THERE'S A CHANCE FOR INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY.
AVIATION
28/1649Z.
AT 1730Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO TRUE MARINE INVERSION, BUT THERE
WAS A MOIST LATER UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. DEEP
MOIST LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PER
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SO, TAF PACKAGE
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS WELL AS SOME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LLWS
AND TURBULENCE ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-18Z. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 7 KNOTS 10Z-17Z.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-18Z.
MARINE
28/103 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A
30-40% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PZZ676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS PZZ650. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA
LEVEL WINDS.
BEACHES
28/606 AM.
A VERY LARGE, MODERATELY LONG PERIOD WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SAT, BRINGING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
TO THE BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AT
10-15 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET ON THE CENTRAL COAST...8-12
FEET ON VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES AND 6-9 FEET LOS ANGELES COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND
MORNING HIGH TIDES.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340-346>348-354. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
349-351-378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
350-352-353-376-377-379-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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