720
FXUS66 KLOX 291247
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
547 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/441 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS, WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
29/502 AM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUED AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY
LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT SOUTH
COAST OF SBA COUNTY, THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY AND
NORTHWESTERN L.A. COUNTY, THROUGH THE I5 AND HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDORS, AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
WITH WEAKENING N-S GRADIENTS AND DECREASING WINDS ALOFT, EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES, THE MTNS OF VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD
BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH MOST AREAS
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX AND
KDAG WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE ON FRI. IN GENERALLY, MAX TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON FRI, GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
AN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND
SUN, AND WILL BE LOCALED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE OREGON
COAST BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN, AND INTO THE WEST
COAST SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY
TO GET JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS SLO COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN SBA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES SUN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PUSH INTO VENTURA COUNTY BY AFTERNOON, AND
INTO L.A. COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON
SUN WITH MAX TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING, AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DECENT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF UP TO 40 KT ACROSS SLO AND NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY SUN MORNING. THE COULD BRING SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
AREAS NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, ESPECIALLY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE.
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AND DECENT LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN MOST
AREAS. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DECREASE BY MON AFTERNOON,
THOUGH ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN
GOING INTO MON EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COOL DAY, WITH MAX TEMPS AGAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MON WILL LIKELY BE ONE THIRD TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES, EXCEPT
LIKELY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES (AND POSSIBLY MORE) ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN SLO COUNTY. ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY,
RAINFALLTOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH, EXCEPT
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/546 AM.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING A HANDLE ON THE UPPER PATTERN, WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH MODELS SHOW
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN MAINLY LATE TUE INTO WED (THE EC IS THE WETTER OF THE
TWO), FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS, BUT MOST HAVE TRENDED DRIER.
HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WHAT HAD ONCE
LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY WET SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW FOR LATE TUE INTO WED, BUT THOSE MAY
HAVE TO BE INCREASED. WITH ANY LUCK, LATER MODELS WILL PROVIDE
MORE CLARITY ON THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IT WILL LIKELY BE
COOL MOST OF THE WEEK, AND WITH THE TRACK OF SYSTEM NOW MORE
INSIDE, THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INSTEAD OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AVIATION
29/1140Z.
AT 0736Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN SFC INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MOST
UNCERTAIN IN NATURE OF CIGS FOR LA COUNTY AIRFIELDS THRU 18Z SAT.
RA/SHRA POSSIBLE TO LIKELY FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX AFTER 06Z SUN, AND
PROB30 -SHRA AT KSBA AFTER 09Z SUN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDS THRU FCST PD.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. PROB30 -SHRA
AFTER 14Z SUN. THERE IS A 25% CHC OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING
7-8KT THRU 17Z SAT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z SAT.
MARINE
29/314 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN PZZ676 THRU
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT. ELSEWHERE, A COMBINATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THRU
SAT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH A 60-70% CHC OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ON SUN IN PZZ670/673 AND 30% CHC IN PZZ676 ON MONDAY. FOR TUES
THRU WED, THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, WITH A 30-40%
CHC OF GALES SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF SCA
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON SAT AND SUN. THERE IS A
60% CHC OF SCA WINDS ON TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
SATURDAY, WITH SCA WINDS FOR SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL (10% CHC OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN AFTERNOON HOURS) AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ655. FOR SUN AND MON, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON
NIGHT THRU WED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 349>353-376>379-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ZONE
676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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