913
FXUS66 KLOX 291642
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
942 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/913 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
29/941 AM.
***UPDATE***
ANOTHER COOL AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. NBM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE POPS
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
BELOW 10%. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE TWO PARTS TO THIS SYSTEM. THE
FIRST ONE WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. COULD
SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NW SLO COUNTY
COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE ADJACENT SANTA LUCIAS WHERE THAT
PERPENDICULAR FLOW OF MOISTURE HITS THE MOUNTAINS CREATING
ADDITIONAL LIFT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY ALOFT WON'T BE AS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT. BUT
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVING ALL THE WAY THROUGH LA
COUNTY SO EVEN LACKING BETTER FORCING IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AT LEAST
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP. BUT DUE TO THESE FACTORS
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN NORTHERN AREAS AND ANY
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY IN LA COUNTY, MAY GET LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
RAIN.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SECOND PART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ROLL THROUGH AND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE AIMED AT AREAS SOUTH OF
PT CONCEPTION WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
PW'S INCREASING TO A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH. OVERALL STILL EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS BUT INTENSITIES SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER, BUT
STILL MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS THE ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE IS
MUCH LOWER IN LATITUDE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW MUCH BELOW 7000
FEET.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MON WILL LIKELY BE ONE THIRD TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES, EXCEPT
LIKELY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES (AND POSSIBLY MORE) ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN SLO COUNTY. ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY,
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH, EXCEPT
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
29/546 AM.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING A HANDLE ON THE UPPER PATTERN, WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH MODELS SHOW
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN MAINLY LATE TUE INTO WED (THE EC IS THE WETTER OF THE
TWO), FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS, BUT MOST HAVE TRENDED DRIER.
HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WHAT HAD ONCE
LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY WET SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW FOR LATE TUE INTO WED, BUT THOSE MAY
HAVE TO BE INCREASED. WITH ANY LUCK, LATER MODELS WILL PROVIDE
MORE CLARITY ON THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. IT WILL LIKELY BE
COOL MOST OF THE WEEK, AND WITH THE TRACK OF SYSTEM NOW MORE
INSIDE, THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INSTEAD OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
AVIATION
29/1140Z.
AT 0736Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN SFC INVERSION.
OVERALL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MOST
UNCERTAIN IN NATURE OF CIGS FOR LA COUNTY AIRFIELDS THRU 18Z SAT.
RA/SHRA POSSIBLE TO LIKELY FOR KPRB, KSBP, KSMX AFTER 06Z SUN, AND
PROB30 -SHRA AT KSBA AFTER 09Z SUN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDS THRU FCST PD.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. PROB30 -SHRA
AFTER 14Z SUN. THERE IS A 25% CHC OF EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING
7-8KT THRU 17Z SAT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z SAT.
MARINE
29/851 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE CONVERTED THE FROM THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE, A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH
A 60-70% CHC OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON SUN IN PZZ670/673 AND 30% CHC
IN PZZ676 ON MONDAY. FOR TUES THRU WED, THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF
SCA LEVEL WINDS, WITH A 30-40% CHC OF GALES SOUTH OF PT.
CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF SCA
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON SAT AND SUN. THERE IS A
60% CHC OF SCA WINDS ON TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
SATURDAY, WITH SCA WINDS FOR SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL (10% CHC OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN AFTERNOON HOURS) AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ655. FOR SUN AND MON, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS A 60-80% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON
NIGHT THRU WED.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 87-340-346-354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 349-350. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 650-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...BLACK/RM
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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