078
FXUS66 KLOX 300341
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
841 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
29/145 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
29/841 PM.
***UPDATE***
MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS COOLED SOME TODAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
INCREASED. THE INLAND AREAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES. ALL AREAS ENDED
UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH ALMOST ALL MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
60S.
THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK WITH A ONE TWO PUNCH (WELL
REALLY WEAK PUNCHES) RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MORNING FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH MUCH LESS CHANCES FOR VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER VTA AND LA COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR BOTH IMPULSES
WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH (NW SLO COUNTY
COULD SEE DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS). SNOW LEVELS WILL BE OVER 700 FT.
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A COMPLICATED BUT OVERALL VERY LOW IMPACT WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY COME IN TWO
PARTS, WITH THE FIRST ONE SUNDAY MOSTLY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND
THE SECOND ONE MONDAY FOCUSING MORE ON LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE BUT IT'S TAPPING
INTO A WARMER BELT OF MOISTURE WITH PW'S PEAKING AROUND 1.2". THE
HIGHEST RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND A QUARTER INCH PER
HOUR SUNDAY ALONG THE NW SLO COUNTY COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF A 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ORTHOGONAL TO THE SANTA LUCIAS WILL
GENERATE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND BETTER FORCING. AS THAT SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AND WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND LITTLE OR NO ENERGY ALOFT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GENERATE
MUCH PRECIP AS IT MOVES INTO VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. EXPECT
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AREAS TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN LA COUNTY GETTING LITTLE TO NO RAIN.
THE SECOND PART OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF IT FOCUSED ON LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES. BUT EVEN WITH PW'S NEAR 1.2", THE LACK OF ANY ENERGY
ALOFT AND JUST MINIMAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AMOUNTS AND RATES WILL BE
LIGHT, MOSTLY UNDER A HALF INCH, HIGHEST IN LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.
WITH THE MOISTURE SOURCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMING FROM LOWER
LATITUDES AND THE UPPER LOW WAY TO THE NORTH, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH, MOSTLY ABOVE 7000 FEET.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. PW'S DECREASE RAPIDLY
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO, MAINLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND SOME WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
29/222 PM.
LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SCALE BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK, AND IN FACT NOW THERE ARE MORE DRY
SOLUTIONS THAN WET ONES. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED FROM PROGRESSIVE TO STATIONARY WITH THE UPPER LOW
LINGERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE IT'S
NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS PATTERN, GIVEN
THE MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DECREASING MOISTURE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE WEEK IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY. AND CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING IMPACTFUL. THE
MAIN THING IS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.
AVIATION
30/0029Z.
AT 2315Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 4600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 5700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 8 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH 09Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE
IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ANY COASTAL SITE
AFT 09Z. RAIN MAY ARRIVE 2 HOURS EARLY THAN FCST. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT CSTL SITES AFT 18Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 09Z. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF BKN015 CONDS AFT 09Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF -RA AFT
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF BKN015 CONDS 18Z-02Z. ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL BE UNDER 6 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF BKN015 CONDS AFT 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF -RA AFT
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF BKN015 CONDS 18Z-02Z.
MARINE
29/810 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH A 60-70% CHC
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON SUN IN PZZ670/673 AND 30-40% CHC IN PZZ676
ON MONDAY. FOR TUES THRU WED, THERE IS A 70-90% CHC OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS, WITH A 30-50% CHC OF GALES SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A 60% CHC OF SCA WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SUN. THERE IS A 50-60% CHC OF SCA
CONDS STARTING ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE THU DAYTIME.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS
A 60-70% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON NIGHT THRU THU WITH A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 650-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page