310
FXUS66 KLOX 301021
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
321 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/201 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
30/321 AM.
THE FIRST LOBE OF A TWO PART STORM HAS IMPINGED ONTO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
NOT MUCH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR 1 INCH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER VTA AND LA
COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ADD UP TO
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH WITH PERHAPS A HALF INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS
NORTH OF MORRO BAY. WHILE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL LULL IN THE
ACTION. MOST TEMPS TODAY WILL FALL 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND END UP IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LA COUNTY CSTS/VLYS
ENDING UP IN THE MID 60S.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THE STORM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA, BUT THIS TIME THE MAIN THRUST WILL BE INTO LA AND VTA
COUNTIES. AGAIN THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
NEGLIGIBLE DYNAMICS. THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT BUT ON AND OFF AGAIN RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS VTA AND ESP
LA COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS. MOST AREAS WILL RECIEVE A TENTH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL
NOT POSE ANY THREATS. THE WARMER SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS 2ND
BLOB WILL ACTUALLY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE AREA WITH MOST MAX
TEMPS 2 TO 4 LOCALLY 6 DEGREES. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FT.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
DRIER NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LOW END WIND ADVISORIES SEEM LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR. COOL AIR FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BRING 5 TO
10 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE MTNS, ANTELOPE VLY AND INLAND VLYS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OVER THE
CSTS/VLYS OF VTA/LA COUNTY. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL COOL ABOUT 4
DEGREES. ALL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
30/216 AM.
THE LONGER RANGE MDLS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE WED TO SAT PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL
BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE LONGER RANGE
MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OVER NV
AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS OF PVA OVER
THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM THE INTERIOR
THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE CHC OF
RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT STAND A DECENT CHC
OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH FACING UPSLOPE AREAS.
ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
30/0029Z.
AT 2315Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 4600 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 5700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 8 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THROUGH 09Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE
IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT ANY COASTAL SITE
AFT 09Z. RAIN MAY ARRIVE 2 HOURS EARLY THAN FCST. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT CSTL SITES AFT 18Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 09Z. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF BKN015 CONDS AFT 09Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF -RA AFT
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF BKN015 CONDS 18Z-02Z. ANY EAST
WIND COMPONENT WILL BE UNDER 6 KTS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT
CHC OF BKN015 CONDS AFT 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF -RA AFT
16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF BKN015 CONDS 18Z-02Z.
MARINE
29/810 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH A 60-70% CHC
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ON SUN IN PZZ670/673 AND 30-40% CHC IN PZZ676
ON MONDAY. FOR TUES THRU WED, THERE IS A 70-90% CHC OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS, WITH A 30-50% CHC OF GALES SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A 60% CHC OF SCA WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SUN. THERE IS A 50-60% CHC OF SCA
CONDS STARTING ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH A LULL
POSSIBLE THU DAYTIME.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN CURRENT FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FOR SUN AND MON, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THERE IS
A 60-70% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON NIGHT THRU THU WITH A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ZONE 673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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