297
FXUS66 KLOX 301754
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1054 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/201 AM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)
30/1004 AM.
***UPDATE*** NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALL BUT PETERED
OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL BATCH OF LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA, AND THE LA BASIN THROUGH MIDDAY,
OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DECENT BREAK IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LAST WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES.
JMB
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE FIRST LOBE OF A TWO PART STORM HAS IMPINGED ONTO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
NOT MUCH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR 1 INCH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OVER VTA AND LA
COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ADD UP TO
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH WITH PERHAPS A HALF INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS
NORTH OF MORRO BAY. WHILE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL LULL IN THE
ACTION. MOST TEMPS TODAY WILL FALL 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND END UP IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE LA COUNTY CSTS/VLYS
ENDING UP IN THE MID 60S.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THE STORM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA, BUT THIS TIME THE MAIN THRUST WILL BE INTO LA AND VTA
COUNTIES. AGAIN THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
NEGLIGIBLE DYNAMICS. THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
OVERNIGHT BUT ON AND OFF AGAIN RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS VTA AND ESP
LA COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIELS. MOST AREAS WILL RECIEVE A TENTH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL
NOT POSE ANY THREATS. THE WARMER SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS 2ND
BLOB WILL ACTUALLY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE AREA WITH MOST MAX
TEMPS 2 TO 4 LOCALLY 6 DEGREES. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALSO KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FT.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
DRIER NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LOW END WIND ADVISORIES SEEM LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR. COOL AIR FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BRING 5 TO
10 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE MTNS, ANTELOPE VLY AND INLAND VLYS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OVER THE
CSTS/VLYS OF VTA/LA COUNTY. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL COOL ABOUT 4
DEGREES. ALL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
30/216 AM.
THE LONGER RANGE MDLS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE WED TO SAT PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL
BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE LONGER RANGE
MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OVER NV
AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS OF PVA OVER
THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM THE INTERIOR
THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE CHC OF
RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT STAND A DECENT CHC
OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH FACING UPSLOPE AREAS.
ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
30/1753Z.
AT 17Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 5500 FEET AND THE
TOP OF THAT INVERSION WAS AROUND 7000 FEET.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THRU THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR, EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR TO VLIFR IN THE HIGHER
VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. THERE WILL BE SOME VFR CONDS TODAY IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, BUT EVEN THERE, SOME MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE
PERIOD, AND THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME, CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY, BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. E WINDS OF 8 TO 10 KT ARE
LIKELY FROM 09Z-17Z MON.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE
PERIOD, AND THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF
THE TIME, CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY, BUT IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
30/958 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL S WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THRU
LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS A
30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS THRU
TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU TUE MORNING, THOUGH
SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS MAY BE AT
SCA LEVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING WIND LULLS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL E TO SE WINDS
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
SCA WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON, THOUGH THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON THRU LATE NIGHT HOURS WED THRU THU NIGHT. SEAS MAY
REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...RORKE/JMB
AVIATION...JMB
MARINE...DB/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page