367
FXUS66 KLOX 302122
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/214 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR SLOPES. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
30/217 PM.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE OCCURRED TODAY, IMPACTING MUCH OF
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AS OF 2 PM,
MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR, BUT
SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.40 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS. WHILE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS STILL ON TRACK TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THERE
WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY,
MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. FOR STORM TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY, MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCHES, EXCEPT SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES IN
THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SANTA YNEZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
THE WARMER SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL ALL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MANY STATIONS
ALREADY SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHERE
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60
MPH IN THE HILLS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS
COMBINING WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT THESE ENHANCED
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY COULD CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO BE
LESS THAN ONE MILE IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
BUT DRIER NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ON TUESDAY,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS STATING
SHOWING A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A LIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED WITH LESS IN THE WAY OFF WINDS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/221 PM.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE
LONGER RANGE MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET
UP OVER NV AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS
OF PVA OVER THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM
THE INTERIOR THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT
STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH
FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
30/1753Z.
AT 17Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 5500 FEET AND THE
TOP OF THAT INVERSION WAS AROUND 7000 FEET.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THRU THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR, EXCEPT MOSTLY IFR TO VLIFR IN THE HIGHER
VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. THERE WILL BE SOME VFR CONDS TODAY IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, BUT EVEN THERE, SOME MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE
PERIOD, AND THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME, CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY, BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. E WINDS OF 8 TO 10 KT ARE
LIKELY FROM 09Z-17Z MON.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE
PERIOD, AND THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF
THE TIME, CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY, BUT IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
30/958 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL S WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THRU
LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS A
30% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS THRU
TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU TUE MORNING, THOUGH
SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS MAY BE AT
SCA LEVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING WIND LULLS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL E TO SE WINDS
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
SCA WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON, THOUGH THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON THRU LATE NIGHT HOURS WED THRU THU NIGHT. SEAS MAY
REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE
AVIATION...JMB
MARINE...DB/LUND
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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