370
FXUS66 KLOX 310110
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
610 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
30/214 PM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR SLOPES. THERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
30/217 PM.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE OCCURRED TODAY, IMPACTING MUCH OF
VENTURA, SANTA BARBARA, AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES, WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AS OF 2 PM,
MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR, BUT
SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.40 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS. WHILE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS STILL ON TRACK TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. THERE
WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY,
MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS. FOR STORM TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY, MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCHES, EXCEPT SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES IN
THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SANTA YNEZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
THE WARMER SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL ALL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MANY STATIONS
ALREADY SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHERE
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60
MPH IN THE HILLS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS
COMBINING WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT THESE ENHANCED
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY COULD CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITIES TO BE
LESS THAN ONE MILE IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLER
BUT DRIER NW FLOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE
A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ON TUESDAY,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WITH POTENTIAL
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS STATING
SHOWING A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A LIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED WITH LESS IN THE WAY OFF WINDS.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/222 PM.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE
LONGER RANGE MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET
UP OVER NV AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS
OF PVA OVER THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM
THE INTERIOR THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT
STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH
FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
31/0109Z.
AT 0040Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A DEEP
MOIST LAYER UP TO 6000 FEET.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) DUE TO LOW
CERTAINTY IN CIGS AND VSBY, AND THE TIMING OF CHANGES. HOWEVER,
CONDS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
OCCASIONAL -SHRA, ESPECIALLY 06Z-18Z. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AT TIMES.
THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST COMPONENT UP TO 8
KNOTS FROM 09Z-17Z MON.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS
WILL FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
PERIODIC -SHRA THROUGH AROUND 18Z . MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z MON.
MARINE
30/250 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL S WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS THRU
LATE TONIGHT, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH SCA LEVEL NW WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION, TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED MORNING, DECREASING TO 30% CHC
THRU WED NIGHT. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED
MID-MORNING.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL S WINDS THRU
TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU TUE MORNING, THOUGH
SEAS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS MAY BE AT
SCA LEVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING WIND LULLS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL E TO SE WINDS
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.
SCA WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON, THOUGH THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL W WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL W TO NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) MON NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THRU WED MID-MORNING, AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS MAY
ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, WITH UP
TO 11 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...DB/LUND
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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