064
FXUS66 KLOX 311142
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
442 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/351 AM.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LINGERING ON NORTHERN SLOPES TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL
BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF
GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
31/442 AM.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. A VERY WEAK TROUGH WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST, WITH BROAD WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH A DEEP MOIST
LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A VORT MAX MOVING TOWARD THE REGION
WILL CAUSE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TO BACK SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME IMPROVED LOW LEVEL LIFT. THIS MAY
HELP TO INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. STILL, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
LIKELY THROUGH MID OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD
BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS
ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. IT
WILL BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN MTNS SLOPES TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WHICH
HAVE BEEN RATHER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT, WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY FALLING AS LOW AS 5000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
BE ABOVE MOST MAJOR ROADWAYS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS, AND AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT ANYWAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY, AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE.
A FAIRLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN END OF ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN (WITH SNOW
ABOVE 5000 FEET) TO SLO COUNTY AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY, AND TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY TUE, LINGERING INTO TUE EVENING, WITH
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY, AND IT WILL STILL
BE QUITE COOL, WITH MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AND SOME VALLEY AREAS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TUE WILL DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CA TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TUE
NIGHT, AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN ALSO TURN NORTHWESTERLY.
ADVISORY LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE INTERSTATE 5 COORIDOR,
THE MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VTU
COUNTY AND NW L.A. COUNTY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WED,
WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. WED WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL, AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS, POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
IT WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL ACROSS THE AREA WED, WITH TEMPS AGAIN
LIKELY FAILING TO REACH 70 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
30/222 PM.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE GENERATED BY SMALLER SCALE PROCESSES THAT THESE
LONGER RANGE MDLS STRUGGLE WITH. A LARGE WOBBLY UPPER LOW WILL SET
UP OVER NV AND SPIN FOR THE DURATION. IT WILL AT TIMES MOVE BLOBS
OF PVA OVER THE FCST AREA. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN ORIGINATES FROM
THE INTERIOR THE PVA WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT THE ONLY AREAS THAT
STAND A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THE MTNS AND ESP THE NORTH
FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE N TO
S DIRECTION TO BRING NORTHERLY CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL ON WED AND THU WITH
MOST CST/VLY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING
FRI AND SAT BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO BRING MAX TEMPS UP TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
31/0109Z.
AT 0040Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A DEEP
MOIST LAYER UP TO 6000 FEET.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) DUE TO LOW
CERTAINTY IN CIGS AND VSBY, AND THE TIMING OF CHANGES. HOWEVER,
CONDS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIGS WILL
FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
OCCASIONAL -SHRA, ESPECIALLY 06Z-18Z. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AT TIMES.
THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST COMPONENT UP TO 8
KNOTS FROM 09Z-17Z MON.
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF, AS CIG HEIGHTS
WILL FLUCTUATE THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
PERIODIC -SHRA THROUGH AROUND 18Z . MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
BUT IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z MON.
MARINE
31/212 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH
SCA LEVEL NW WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) TUE THRU THU
NIGHT. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED MORNING,
DECREASING TO 30% CHC THRU WED NIGHT. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THRU WED MID-MORNING FOR PZZ650/655/676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU EARLY TUE
MORNING. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE SCA
LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THU AS IT SUBSIDES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 80% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON AFTERNOON/EVE
FOR SBA CHANNEL, AND BEGINNING IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR PZZ655.
SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL IT INCREASES TO GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WED MID-MORNING (50-60% CHC). A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. SEAS MAY ALSO
REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO
11 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...DB/RORKE/GOMBERG
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...BLACK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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