594
FXUS66 KLOX 312018
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
118 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/118 PM.
OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER. AMPLE CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE. WARMING AND DRYING REMAINS THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
31/109 PM.
A LARGE AND PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 53 AND 63 MOST COMMON.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA WHILE THE INSULATING
CLOUDS AND RAIN DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOME AREAS.
THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TO DESCRIBE WITHOUT A MAP. EXPECTING RAIN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE MOST NOTICEABLE DROP OFF OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
COASTAL SIDE OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
HOWEVER, OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT TIMES. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND
UNDER 0.25 INCHES. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA AROUND THE I-5 TEJON
PASS, WHERE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS (DOWN TO 3,500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING) COULD PRODUCE SOME TRAFFIC-SLOWING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE PASS SHOULD BE A DUSTING, WITH A LOW BUT PRESENT THREAT FOR
UP TO 1 INCH. FAVORED MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES MIGHT SEE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE ONE CAVEAT AND SMALL CHANCE SCENARIO TO KEEP IN MIND,
IS WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK, THE ACTIVE
STORMS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COULD ALSO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW. NONE OF THE PROJECTIONS HINT AT THAT
SO FAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS OMINOUSLY CLOSE.
WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING ALOFT, THE WINDS WILL TURN AND STRENGTHEN
AT THE GROUND AS WELL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD, AS A STRONG 120-140 KNOT
JET MOVES RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, OVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA INCLUDING URBAN AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS OF 55
TO 65 OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED TO COVER THIS.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP TO THE SOUTH AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION OF
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 500 MILLIBARS AROUND 25 CELSIUS.
BEING EARLY APRIL, AIR THIS COLD ALOFT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH A FOCUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RISK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS REALLY LOW.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
31/111 PM.
WITH THE TROUGH DRIVING OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK LIKELY STILL HANGING
AROUND ON FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST, AS THE MAJORITY (BUT NOT
ALL) SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS, WE ARE LIKELY INLINE FOR A BIG CHANGE IN
OUR WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
ALOFT, AND WEAK TO LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP, STEADY
WARMING IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE PROJECTIONS SUPPORT THIS
NARRATIVE, THERE IS A SMALL BUT PRESENT MINORITY THAT KEEP LOW
PRESSURE AROUND, WHICH WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO WARM UP. WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER, NONE OF EVEN THE MINORITY PROJECTIONS SHOW ANY
CONCERNING RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
31/1204Z.
AT 1007Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR A SFC-BASED
INVERSION.
OVERALL, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. FLIGHT CATS COULD
BE OFF ONE OR TWO THRU 00Z TUE. -SHRA CHANCES AT TIMES. GUSTY W TO
SW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THRU THE FCST PD. LIGHT
LLWS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY,
SAN GABRIEL + TOPATOPA MTNS.
KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY AT TIMES THRU 00Z TUE - GENERALLY
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO MVFR CONDS. -SHRA CHANCES THRU
AROUND 21Z MON. EAST WIND COMPONENT AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED THRU
~18Z MON (+/- 1 HOUR).
KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY AT TIMES THRU 00Z TUE - GENERALLY
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM LIFR TO MVFR CONDS. -SHRA CHANCES THRU
AROUND 19Z MON.
MARINE
31/934 AM.
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO PUSH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES A BIT EARLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AND ADD LOW END
SCA STARTING THIS EVENING FOR THE OTHER OUTER AND NORTHERN WATERS.
WILL CONSIDER UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
..FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W WIND MON, WITH
SCA LEVEL NW WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY (80% CHANCE) TUE THRU THU
NIGHT. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED MORNING,
DECREASING TO 30% CHC THRU WED NIGHT. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR TUE
AFTERNOON THRU WED MID-MORNING FOR PZZ650/655/676.
FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MON THRU EARLY TUE
MORNING. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS TUE THRU THU, AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE SCA
LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THU AS IT SUBSIDES.
FOR THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 80% CHC OF SCA WINDS MON AFTERNOON/EVE
FOR SBA CHANNEL, AND BEGINNING IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR PZZ655.
SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL IT INCREASES TO GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WED MID-MORNING (50-60% CHC). A
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. SEAS MAY ALSO
REACH SCA LEVELS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO
11 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3
PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...BLACK
MARINE...RM/BLACK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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