562
FXUS66 KLOX 312129
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/118 PM.
OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER. AMPLE CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE. WARMING AND DRYING REMAINS THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
31/109 PM.
A LARGE AND PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 53 AND 63 MOST COMMON.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA WHILE THE INSULATING
CLOUDS AND RAIN DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN SOME AREAS.
THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TO DESCRIBE WITHOUT A MAP. EXPECTING RAIN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE MOST NOTICEABLE DROP OFF OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
COASTAL SIDE OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
HOWEVER, OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT TIMES. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND
UNDER 0.25 INCHES. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA AROUND THE I-5 TEJON
PASS, WHERE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS (DOWN TO 3,500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING) COULD PRODUCE SOME TRAFFIC-SLOWING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE PASS SHOULD BE A DUSTING, WITH A LOW BUT PRESENT THREAT FOR
UP TO 1 INCH. FAVORED MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES MIGHT SEE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE ONE CAVEAT AND SMALL CHANCE SCENARIO TO KEEP IN MIND,
IS WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK, THE ACTIVE
STORMS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COULD ALSO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW. NONE OF THE PROJECTIONS HINT AT THAT
SO FAR, BUT THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS OMINOUSLY CLOSE.
WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING ALOFT, THE WINDS WILL TURN AND STRENGTHEN
AT THE GROUND AS WELL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD, AS A STRONG 120-140 KNOT
JET MOVES RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, OVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA INCLUDING URBAN AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS OF 55
TO 65 OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED TO COVER THIS.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP TO THE SOUTH AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION OF
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 500 MILLIBARS AROUND 25 CELSIUS.
BEING EARLY APRIL, AIR THIS COLD ALOFT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH A FOCUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RISK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS REALLY LOW.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
31/111 PM.
WITH THE TROUGH DRIVING OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK LIKELY STILL HANGING
AROUND ON FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST, AS THE MAJORITY (BUT NOT
ALL) SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS, WE ARE LIKELY INLINE FOR A BIG CHANGE IN
OUR WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
ALOFT, AND WEAK TO LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP, STEADY
WARMING IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE PROJECTIONS SUPPORT THIS
NARRATIVE, THERE IS A SMALL BUT PRESENT MINORITY THAT KEEP LOW
PRESSURE AROUND, WHICH WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO WARM UP. WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER, NONE OF EVEN THE MINORITY PROJECTIONS SHOW ANY
CONCERNING RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
31/2020Z.
AT 19Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR A SFC-BASED
INVERSION.
OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS. FLIGHT CATS COULD BE OFF ONE
OR TWO GUSTY. LIGHT LLWS AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY, SAN GABRIEL + TOPATOPA MTNS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 00Z.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY AT TIMES THRU 00Z.
EAST WIND COMPONENT UP TO 5 KTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY 3 HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE 23-06Z.
MARINE
31/229 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS (PEAKING ABOVE 10
FEET FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND 6-10 FEET FOR INNER WATERS) ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING BY
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WATERS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS REMAINING WATERS AT SOME POINT IN THAT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, LIKELY INTO THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...MUNROE/BLACK
MARINE...MUNROE
SYNOPSIS...RK
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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