929
FXUS66 KLOX 010614
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1114 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
31/734 PM.
OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE CLOUDS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PEAKING
ON TUESDAY IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. WARMING AND DRYING REMAINS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
31/825 PM.
***UPDATE***
PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH
TOTALS MAINLY UNDER 0.10 INCH. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FELL OVER THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COASTAL FOOTHILLS, INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS, WITH 0.10 TO 0.32 INCH. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A
NUMBER OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER LOW,
PRODUCING AN OFF AND ON RAINFALL REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SLOPES, AND NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. SNOW FLURRIES COULD BE AN ISSUE OVER THE GRAPEVINE
TONIGHT, AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO NEAR 4000 FEET. A DUSTING OF SNOW
IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW AT MOUNTAIN PASS LEVEL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, WARMEST OVER THE LA VALLEYS AND
COASTAL BASIN. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH COASTAL AREAS SEEING GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CONTINUED GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE RAIN WILL BE TRICKY TO DESCRIBE WITHOUT A MAP. EXPECTING RAIN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE MOST NOTICEABLE DROP OFF OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
COASTAL SIDE OF LOS ANGELES, VENTURA, AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
HOWEVER, OFF AND ON AGAIN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
AT TIMES. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER
0.25 INCHES. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA AROUND THE I-5 TEJON PASS,
WHERE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS (DOWN TO 3,500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING) COULD PRODUCE SOME TRAFFIC-SLOWING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE PASS SHOULD BE A DUSTING, WITH A LOW BUT PRESENT THREAT FOR
UP TO 1 INCH. FAVORED MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES MIGHT SEE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE ONE SMALL CHANCE SCENARIO TO KEEP IN MIND, IS WITH THE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK, THE ACTIVE STORMS CURRENTLY
JUST NORTH OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW. NONE OF THE PROJECTIONS HINT AT THAT SO FAR, BUT THE
ACTIVITY TODAY IS OMINOUSLY CLOSE.
WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING ALOFT, THE WINDS WILL TURN AND STRENGTHEN
AT THE GROUND AS WELL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD, AS A STRONG 120-140 KNOT
JET MOVES RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE AREA INCLUDING URBAN AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS OF 55 TO 65
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED TO COVER THIS.
THE TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP TO THE SOUTH AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION OF
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 500 MILLIBARS AROUND 25 CELSIUS.
BEING EARLY APRIL, AIR THIS COLD ALOFT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH A FOCUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RISK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS REALLY LOW.
LONG TERM (THU-SUN)
31/111 PM.
WITH THE TROUGH DRIVING OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK LIKELY STILL HANGING
AROUND ON FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST, AS THE MAJORITY (BUT NOT
ALL) SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS, WE ARE LIKELY INLINE FOR A BIG CHANGE IN
OUR WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
ALOFT, AND WEAK TO LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP, STEADY
WARMING IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE PROJECTIONS SUPPORT THIS
NARRATIVE, THERE IS A SMALL BUT PRESENT MINORITY THAT KEEP LOW
PRESSURE AROUND, WHICH WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO WARM UP. WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER, NONE OF EVEN THE MINORITY PROJECTIONS SHOW ANY
CONCERNING RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
01/0613Z.
AT 0530Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR AN INVERSION.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES THRU TUE AFTERNOON, WITH CIGS
OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS AND EVEN SOME COASTAL
AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE. CIGS WILL BE
MOSTLY LOW VFR TO MVFR, EXCEPT IFR TO VLIFR IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS, AND OCCASIONALLY ON THE CENTRAL COAST.
ARGUABLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND,
ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON/EVE. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WIDESPREAD AND UNUSUALLY
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST AIRPORT TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE AND LLWS. IN ADDITION, THERE
WILL BE SOME STRONG UDDF, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-17Z.
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY W TO NW WINDS OVERNIGHT AND TUE
MORNING, THEN STRONG WEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS TO 35
TO 40 KT ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) FROM 20Z TUE THRU 03Z WED. WINDS
MAY BE OFF +/- 10 KT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 19Z. NO
SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-17Z.
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY W TO NW WINDS, ESPECIALLY
TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT, WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT FROM 19Z TUE THRU 03Z WED. WINDS
MAY BE OFF +/- 10 KT AT TIMES.
MARINE
31/804 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS (PEAKING NEAR 15
FEET FOR THE OUTER WATERS, 10-12 FEET FOR THE INNER WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST, AND AND 8-10 FEET FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION) ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GALES TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS THE REMAINING OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE OUTER WATERS, WINDS ARE LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT
CHANCE) TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...KITTELL/SMITH
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...MUNROE/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...RK/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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