028
FXUS66 KLOX 011849
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1149 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
01/910 AM.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE FREE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
01/928 AM.
***UPDATE***
AN UPPER LOW OVER OREGON WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY, THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE SIERRA
CREST INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INSIDE TRACK THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ISN'T PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION DUE THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE TRANSVERSE RANGE, BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS SLO AND NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
GRAPEVINE REGION. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW, ANYWHERE FROM 3500 TO
4500 FEET, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
INTERSTATE OVER THE GRAPEVINE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
ELSEWHERE TODAY, JUST COOL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. STRONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND VENTURA/LA COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF PT.
CONCEPTION. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO SLO COUNTY AND NORTHERN
SBA COUNTY. A WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND SOMEWHAT MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND WINDS WERE AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THIS MORNING,
THEN WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEVADA AND EASTERN CA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN END OF ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SOME MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO SLO COUNTY AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY, AND TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY AS WELL BY THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD MOSTLY BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN SLO COUNTY AND IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET, AND THERE COULD BE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO THRU THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
TODAY, IT WILL BE PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COOL.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF
APRIL IN MOST AREAS.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDS.
WIDESPREAD STRONG WEST TO LOCALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR A WEST WIND EVENT,
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH QUITE LIKELY IN COASTAL AREAS, AND GUSTS
TO 55 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN SOME VALLEY
AREAS NOT PRONE TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTS TO 35
OR 40 MPH GUSTS TODAY.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF IN COASTAL AREAS, BUT ADVISORY
LEVEL NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE INTERSTATE 5
COORIDOR, THE MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OF
NORTHERN VTU COUNTY AND NW L.A. COUNTY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET, AND ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT SNOW COULD AFFECT TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WED,
WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL, AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL ACROSS THE AREA WED, WITH TEMPS AGAIN
REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT IN THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
THE LARGE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN STATES WED NIGHT AND
THU. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND
NEVADA ON THU, EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CA LATE THU AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE, BUT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS, DECENT DYNAMICS
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL MAKE THE MOST OF ANY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EASTERN SBA
COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD, ESPECIALLY IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY THU
AFTERNOON, ENDING ACROSS SBA COUNTY IN THE EVENING, BUT CONTINUING
ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTY THRU THE EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON/EVE, AND THOSE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST. YET ANOTHER COOL DAY THU, WITH TEMPS AGAIN 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SBA AND SLO COUNTY THU. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ARIZONA LATE THU NIGHT, AND WINDS ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL END BY LATE THU NIGHT, AND STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS PRONE TO STRONG WINDS FROM THAT
DIRECTION INCLUDING SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY, THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS OF L.A. COUNTY. WHERE THE WIND DROPS
OFF IT WILL BE COLD THU NIGHT, WITH FROST POSSIBLY IN THE COOLER
VALLEYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE OJAI VALLEY.
LONG TERM (FRI-MON)
01/451 AM.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRI, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE.
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS IN THE MORNING, LIKELY
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS, THEN WINDS WILL ABATE. AFTER A
CHILLY START, MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND FRI, AND BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THOSE ON THU IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST FRI WILL EDGE INTO
THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE EC. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE EC SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING THE UPPER LOW
FROM MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEPING HEIGHTS QUITE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE DECENT N-S GRADIENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW W-E GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG
TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS WELL, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NORTHEASTERLY. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AND WARMER OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
UPPER PATTERN. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER WEEKEND, WITH MAX
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN
THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE EC WOULD BE COOLER THAN THE GFS BUT STILL SHOWS
WARMING, WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S MORE LIKELY. BY MON, AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY BRING COOLING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
AVIATION
01/1848Z.
AROUND 18Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. CEILINGS MAY VARY
THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR CATEGORIES AT TERMINALS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
20Z AND 03Z.
THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CIG/VSBY CONDS THROUGH 05Z NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
KLAX...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AFFECT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 21Z AND 05Z.
KBUR...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 21Z AND 05Z.
MARINE
01/927 AM.
FORECAST TRACKING WELL THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE.
..FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT
VERSUS THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BIGHT. MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A 90-100 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS AND A 50-80
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD GALES ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GALES WILL
BE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
AFTER A CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 381>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...MUNROE/HALL
MARINE...RM/HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW/DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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