055
FXUS66 KLOX 012353
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
453 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
01/134 PM.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
LOW SNOW LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
BUT WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
01/210 PM.
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE DROPPED SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE GRAPEVINE REGION. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT STRONGLY FROM THE NORTH
THE TRANSVERSE RANGE IS PREVENTING THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, HOWEVER THOSE
AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ
AND THE AIR MASS BRIEFLY DRIES OUT.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. HI TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
ANOTHER BATCH OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE EXISTING
TROUGH ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT THIS TIME MAINLY
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. 12Z ENSEMBLES WE'RE NOT QUITE AS ON BOARD
WITH THIS IDEA AS EARLIER RUNS SO IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT, BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA COUNTY WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. AND ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, GENERALLY 3500-4500 FEET.
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN TROUGH FINALLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
01/225 PM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH WARMER VALLEY HIGHS CLOSE TO 90
AND COASTAL AREAS UPPER 60S AND 70S.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MONDAY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
WARM UP BRIEFLY BEFORE A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION
01/2352Z.
AROUND 00Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS, AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH RELATIVE LULLS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG LLWS AND TURBC
THROUGH 06Z, THEN LOW TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBC AFTER 18Z.
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CIG/VSBY CONDS THROUGH 08Z NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BLDU MAY
CREATE LOWER VIS AT KPMD AND KWJF.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS, AS GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD, WITH RELATIVE LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
TO MODERATE TURBC AND LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. NO EAST WIND
EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS. THERE WILL BE RELATIVE LULLS IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG LLWS AND TURBC THROUGH 06Z, THEN LOW
TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBC AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
01/109 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INSIDE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BIGHT VERSUS THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BIGHT. MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES ACROSS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN AND REMAINING OUTER WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AFTER A CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING TO MORNING HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-381>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...MUNROE/HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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