290   
FXUS66 KLOX 020543  
AFDLOX  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA   
1043 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
01/134 PM.  
  
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH  
LOW SNOW LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY   
BUT WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS ARE   
AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS   
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED   
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT   
WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO  
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)  
01/1043 PM.  
  
***UPDATE***  
  
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY,   
BRINGING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA   
BARBARA COUNTIES. WINDS WERE QUITE STRONG TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR   
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND THE WESTERN LA COUNTY COAST INTO THE   
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS, WHERE GUSTS REACHED 82 MPH AT SANDSTONE   
PEAK. PLENTY OF AREAS SAW GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE.   
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED ABOUT 6 TO 16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,   
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.   
  
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT, THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO  
HANG OVER THE AREA, CYCLING A NUMBER OF LOWS THROUGH THE REGION.   
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH SLOPES, AND   
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS   
OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,   
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN THURSDAY. GIVEN THE 500 MB   
TEMPERATURES AROUND -25 DEGREES, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR   
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT   
WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE OFF OF THE HIGHER TOPOGRAPHY THURSDAY.   
WILL SEE A DRAMATIC CHANGE AS THIS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES   
EAST, BRINGING A WARMER AIRMASS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE CURRENT   
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, BUT WILL CONSIDER MORE WIND ADVISORIES   
FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH EXPANDING SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***  
  
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA   
WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT THAT HAVE DROPPED SOME LIGHT   
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER   
THE GRAPEVINE REGION. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT STRONGLY FROM THE NORTH  
THE TRANSVERSE RANGE IS PREVENTING THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE  
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION, HOWEVER THOSE  
AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST   
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.   
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ   
AND THE AIR MASS BRIEFLY DRIES OUT.  
  
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH SOME GUSTY   
NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. HI TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COOLEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
  
ANOTHER BATCH OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE EXISTING  
TROUGH ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE  
INSTABILITY AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND   
POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT THIS TIME MAINLY   
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. 12Z ENSEMBLES WE'RE NOT QUITE AS ON BOARD  
WITH THIS IDEA AS EARLIER RUNS SO IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE SHOWER  
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL  
BE LIGHT, BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR THAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA COUNTY WHERE THE BEST  
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. AND ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS  
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, GENERALLY 3500-4500 FEET.  
  
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN TROUGH FINALLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WHAT  
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY  
WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)  
01/225 PM.  
  
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA  
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND, BRINGING  
TEMPERATURES UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 4-8  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH WARMER VALLEY HIGHS CLOSE TO 90  
AND COASTAL AREAS UPPER 60S AND 70S.  
  
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MONDAY WILL SLOW DOWN THE  
WARM UP BRIEFLY BEFORE A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY AND   
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
01/2352Z.  
  
AROUND 00Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.  
  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS, AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE   
IN WINDS. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH   
THE PERIOD, WITH RELATIVE LULLS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT   
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS   
A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG LLWS AND TURBC   
THROUGH 06Z, THEN LOW TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBC AFTER 18Z.  
  
THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS WITH MVFR   
CIG/VSBY CONDS THROUGH 08Z NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BLDU MAY   
CREATE LOWER VIS AT KPMD AND KWJF.  
  
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
WINDS, AS GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MOST   
OF THE PERIOD, WITH RELATIVE LULLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW  
TO MODERATE TURBC AND LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. NO EAST WIND   
EXPECTED.  
  
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
WINDS. THERE WILL BE RELATIVE LULLS IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE  
INCREASING IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE   
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG LLWS AND TURBC THROUGH 06Z, THEN LOW  
TO MODERATE LLWS AND TURBC AFTER 18Z.  
  
  
   
MARINE  
01/835 PM.  
  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIDESPREAD GALES ACROSS   
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT   
CONCEPTION ARE HIGHLY LIKELY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY   
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY DIP UNDER GALE THRESHOLDS AT TIMES  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.  
  
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED  
(90-100 PERCENT CHANCE) THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
WITH A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY   
EVENING. THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES EXTENDING INTO   
THE NORTHERN AND REMAINING OUTER WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING.  
  
CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS DECREASE (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE  
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
  
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
EVENING TO MORNING HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER   
THE REGION.  
  
  
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
      ZONES 87-88-350-354>358-362-366>375-381>383-548. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
     WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
      ZONES 349-351>353-376>380. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).  
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR  
      ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR  
      ZONES 645-670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
     GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES  
      650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
  
  
  
  
  
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW  
AVIATION...LEWIS  
MARINE...MUNROE/LEWIS  
SYNOPSIS...MW  
  
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
  
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX  
 
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