010
FXUS66 KLOX 021147
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
447 AM PDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/414 AM.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES AND EASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET. GUSTY WINDS AND EXPECTED TODAY, THEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
02/447 AM.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. IN
GENERAL, THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUED THIS MORNING, BUT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOWERS WERE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES OF VTU AND NORTHWESTERN L.A. COUNTIES. A VORT MAX DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM OREGON TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING IN AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ON NORTH FACING SLOPES.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND IN SOME AREAS, NO PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY A
BIT LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FEET, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE
DOWN TO 4000 FEET. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE, BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH ACCUMULATION ON THAT MAJOR ROUTE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL COASTAL AREAS, THE ANTELOPE VALLEY,
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SBA, VTU, AND L.A. COUNTIES, AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR THRU THIS EVENING, AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THESE AREAS. WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE ON TUE. IT WILL REMAIN VERY CHILLY, WITH MAX TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL (BY 6 TO 12 DEGREES) FOR EARLY APRIL.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY THU, AND THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF DRYING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT
AND THU MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TONIGHT,
AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS LATE
TONIGHT/THU MORNING. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN WIND-SHELTERED
COOL CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME COOLER
VALLEYS IN SLO AND SBA COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY THE OJAI VALLEY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG AND COLD TROUGH OVER CA AND NEVADA ON
THU AND EARLY THU NIGHT, AND THE SOUTHERN END WILL PINCH OFF INTO
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER THU EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE, BUT DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SOMEWHAT MAKE UP FOR THAT. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EASTERN SBA COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH LOS ANGELES COUNTY THU AFTERNOON, SHIFTING OUT OF SBA
COUNTY IN THE EVENING, BUT CONTINUING IN L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON/EVE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS,
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY COOL IN THU. WHILE
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST
AREAS, THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STORM PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA LATE THU NIGHT
AND ACROSS ARIZONA DURING FRI. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT
AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. WINDS ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT, SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN PLACES SUCH AS SOUTHERN SBA
COUNTY, THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS OF
L.A. COUNTY. WHERE THE WIND DROPS OFF IT WILL BE COLD THU NIGHT,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE OJAI VALLEY.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
IN SOME AREAS. HEIGHTS RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING FRI, PROBABLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
DB
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
01/225 PM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH WARMER VALLEY HIGHS CLOSE TO 90
AND COASTAL AREAS UPPER 60S AND 70S.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MONDAY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
WARM UP BRIEFLY BEFORE A STRONGER RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION
02/1000Z.
AROUND 07Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TIMING. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH RELATIVE LULLS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN IN THE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TURBULENCE WITH
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 16Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST AT
DESERT TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 21Z
AND 03Z.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
02/300 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT
LEAST, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT, AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY CHANCE OF GALES, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. THERE
IS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, HIGHEST FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS.
CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS DECREASE (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING TO MORNING HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-349>355-362-366>371-376>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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