254
FXUS66 KLOX 021652
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
952 AM PDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/938 AM.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AND EASTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY
BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. GUSTY WINDS AND EXPECTED TODAY,
THEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
02/951 AM.
***UPDATE***
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY BUT WITH LESS
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE GRAPEVINE REGION CONTINUES TO GET
PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000-4500 FEET,
MEANING THE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TOP OF
THE TEJON PASS ON INTERSTATE 5. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, THEN SOME
OF THAT SPILLING OVER INTO THE LA VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA
VALLEYS, SO WHILE THE DAY IS STARTING OFF SUNNY ACROSS THE LA
BASIN AND ENVIRONS, LOOK FOR SKIES TO START CLOUDING UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, AND EVEN A 5-10% OF A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. IN
GENERAL, THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUED THIS MORNING, BUT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOWERS WERE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES OF VTU/NW L.A. COUNTIES. A VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM OREGON TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING IN AREAS N OF PT. CONCEPTION AND ON
NORTH FACING SLOPES.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND IN SOME AREAS, NO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4000 FT, POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO ABOVE 4500-5000 FT, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN TO
4000 FT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON THAT MAJOR ROUTE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL COASTAL AREAS, THE ANTELOPE VALLEY,
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SBA, VTU, AND L.A. COUNTIES, AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR THRU THIS EVENING, AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THESE AREAS. WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE ON TUE. IT WILL REMAIN VERY CHILLY, WITH MAX TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL (BY 6 TO 12 DEGREES) FOR EARLY APRIL.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY THU, AND THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF DRYING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT
AND THU MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TONIGHT,
AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS LATE
TONIGHT/THU MORNING. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN WIND-SHELTERED
COOL CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME COOLER
VALLEYS IN SLO AND SBA COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY THE OJAI VALLEY.
FOR THU AND EARLY THU NIGHT, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PAC NW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE AND COLD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CA AND NEVADA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER
THU EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE, BUT DECENT
DYNAMICS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY (WITH VERY LOW TEMPS AT 500
MB) WILL SOMEWHAT MAKE UP FOR THAT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM EASTERN SBA COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU L.A. COUNTY
THU AFTERNOON, SHIFTING OUT OF SBA COUNTY IN THE EVENING, BUT
CONTINUING IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON/EVE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. IT WILL REMAIN
VERY COOL THU. WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A THIRD
OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS, THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STORM PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA LATE THU NIGHT
AND ACROSS ARIZONA DURING FRI. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT
AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. WINDS ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT, SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN PLACES SUCH AS SOUTHERN SBA
COUNTY, THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS OF
L.A. COUNTY. WHERE THE WIND DROPS OFF IT WILL BE COLD THU NIGHT,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE OJAI VALLEY.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
IN SOME AREAS. HEIGHTS RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING FRI, PROBABLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
02/522 AM.
THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING UPPER HIGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST SAT, THEN MOVING RIGHT
OVER CA SUN. N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH EXPECT ONLY
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX AND
KDAG MAY FLIP WEAKLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT
AND SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP 6 TO 12 DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S IN WARMER
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE WARMING SUN, AND MAX
TEMPS COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS,
WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW MON, WHICH WILL KNOCK HEIGHTS
DOWN A BIT OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AGAIN TUE AS AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO RISE AGAIN.
AVIATION
02/1000Z.
AROUND 07Z, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TIMING. LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH RELATIVE LULLS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN IN THE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TURBULENCE WITH
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 16Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST AT
DESERT TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 21Z
AND 03Z.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO WIND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
02/300 AM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT
LEAST, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT, AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH-TO-LIKELY CHANCE OF GALES, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. THERE
IS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, HIGHEST FOR THE WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS.
CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS DECREASE (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING TO MORNING HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-349>355-362-366>371-376>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MW/DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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