271
FXUS66 KLOX 022103
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
203 PM PDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
02/101 PM.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR STORMS. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ON FRIDAY BUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT
WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
02/202 PM.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENGULF MOST OF THE WESTERN
US WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO AZ. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LESS
FREQUENT TODAY AND MOSTLY JUST NEAR THE GRAPEVINE REGION WITH
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR THOSE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO
GETTING SOME FAST MOVING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN SLO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARDS THE CUYAMA VALLEY AND
THE NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SOME BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGH WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST THURSDAY, AND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY. HI RES MODELS
REALLY FOCUS THE PRECIP OVER THE TRANSVERSE RANGE THROUGH THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS, AND THEN SPILLING DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MORNING CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL QUICKLY CLOUD OVER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS COULD REACH A HALF INCH, THOUGH IN MOST CASES
STORMS WILL ONLY LAST 20-30 MINUTES OVER ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30KT. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 5000 FEET SO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
EXPECTED ON INTERSTATE 5 BUT POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S
STILL SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOISTURE DROPS OFF AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH. HAVE LEFT RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR NOW BUT
WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS WITH THE HI RES MODELS TOMORROW.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 4-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
02/158 PM.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUITE WARM, ESPECIALLY INLAND AND WARMEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT GETS KNOCKED DOWN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PAC NW. SO AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK
FOR MONDAY TO A LITTLE COOLER, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETURNS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING GRADIENTS EITHER NEAR NEUTRAL
OR SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL
PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS WILL WARM UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES, LIKELY REACHING THE AT LEAST THE MID 90S FOR THE WARMEST
VALLEYS, WITH A AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE OF WOODLAND HILLS REACHING
100.
AVIATION
02/1952Z.
AT 18Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
DECREASING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TURBULENCE WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND UDDF INTO LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS AT DESERT TERMINALS BETWEEN THROUGH 03Z. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AT KPRB OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT WILL BE 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF
MARINE
02/1252 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER THIS
EVENING. THEN, THERE IS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING,
ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH PAST SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND, INCLUDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL. HOWEVER, A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WEAK SCA WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING TO MORNING HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 87-349>355-362-366>371-376>383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-341-346>348. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 340-346. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 354-362-366. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
645-650-655-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...HALL/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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