582
FXUS66 KLOX 200617
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1117 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
19/751 PM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND ARE ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY.
A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)
19/800 PM.
QUIET, LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
THE WARMUP KICKED OFF TODAY IN A FAIRLY BIG WAY WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST VALLEY AREAS CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, EXCEPT SLIGHT WARMING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
TONIGHT, WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION, SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT, BUT HREF MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY
UNDER ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST TO OXNARD
AREA MAY BE SPARED.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND
INTERIOR, PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BUT ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM (WED-SAT)
19/202 PM.
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTRA TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TROUGH IS
STRONG ENOUGH OR POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF LIGHT RAIN AND
EVEN THEN THE RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST AND POINTS NORTH.
WHAT IS LIKELY IS SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER DEEPENING AND COOLING
TRENDS IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH NIGHT TO
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING COMMON INTO FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN
PASSES. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER MAY TRIGGER PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR, NEARING
ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FOOTHILLS EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
20/0616Z.
AT 0505Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KBUR, KVNY, KPMD AND KWJF. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 11Z-17Z. FOR THE REMAINED OF
TAFS...FCST CIG HGT MAY BE OFF BY +/- 200 FT. ARRIVAL AND
DISIPATION TIMES MAY BE OFF BY 90 MINUTES.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 19Z THEN GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF OVC006 CIGS. THERE ARE
EQUAL CHANCES OF CLEARING 17Z-19Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.
KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MARINE
19/758 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN POINT
CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS ALL THE OUTER WATERS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS
MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MUNROE/GOMBERG
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...RK/RM/CC
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
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