991
FXUS66 KLOX 222106
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
206 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/858 AM.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH DRIZZLE WILL BE A
STAPLE OF THE FORECAST, STRUGGLING TO CLEAR FROM BEACHES EACH DAY.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
22/147 PM.
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
MAINTAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS
AROUND 2400 FEET AND EXPECTING THAT TO RISE TO AT LEAST 3500 FEET
TONIGHT RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. SOME COASTAL AREAS ARE ALREADY SEEING LITTLE TO NO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THAT TREND WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE WEEK TO THE POINT WHERE VALLEYS WILL EVENTUALLY STAY SOCKED IN
ALL DAY. THAT COULD BE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY BUT CERTAINLY NO LATER
THAN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SLO COUNTY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AS THAT NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT HIGHS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
22/400 AM.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATE COOLING EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY.
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY, WHILE GEFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE MUCH DRIER. A COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.
A WARMING TREND WILL ESTABLISH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLUSTER
ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT NOSING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES WITH
HOW STRONG THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE. MOST FAVOR A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE FORECAST GOES WITH NBM VALUES FOR THE CURRENT TIME.
AVIATION
22/1745Z.
AT 1638Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES
MAY BE OFF +/- 3 HOURS, AND SOME COASTAL SITES MAY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT
KSMX TONIGHT, AND A 20% CHANCE AT KBUR/KVNY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDS AT KOXR/KCMA, AND A 20% CHANCE FOR KSMO/KLAX/KLGB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS > OVC012 MAY MOVE IN AND
OUT OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF CIGS
MAY BE AS EARLY AS 21Z OR AS LATE AS 02Z. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
CIGS OVC007-010 08Z-16Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ARRIVAL OF CIGS MAY BE OFF +/-
3 HOURS. 20% CHANCE FOR CIGS OVC002-005 AND/OR VSBYS 1/2SM TO 1SM ONCE
CIGS ARRIVE.
MARINE
22/154 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION PZZ670, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A SCA DUE TO THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS PZZ673/676 THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A 50-60% CHANCE
FOR SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A 60-80%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS ALL THE OUTER WATERS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/HALL
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...RAT/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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