693
FXUS66 KLOX 230424
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
924 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
22/858 AM.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH DRIZZLE WILL BE A
STAPLE OF THE FORECAST, STRUGGLING TO CLEAR FROM BEACHES EACH DAY.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
22/754 PM.
***UPDATE***
A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER CAPPED BY A STRONG INVERSION TEAMED UP WITH
AN 8 MB ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST TO BRING MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO
ALL OF THE CSTS/VLYS AND SLOW TO NO CLEARING TO THE COASTS IN THE
AFTERNOON (LA COUNTY HAD THE BEST CLEARING AND WAS SUNNY BY NOON).
LOOK FOR A SIMILAR DAY TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH
COAST WHERE A LITTLE OFFSHORE PUSH FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY BETTER CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BLO NORMALS FOR THE CSTS/VLYS WHILE THE
ANTELOPE VLY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF THE WESTERN MTNS/FOOTHILLS.
GLOOMY FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
MAINTAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS COAST AND
VALLEYS WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS
AROUND 2400 FEET AND EXPECTING THAT TO RISE TO AT LEAST 3500 FEET
TONIGHT RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. SOME COASTAL AREAS ARE ALREADY SEEING LITTLE TO NO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THAT TREND WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE WEEK TO THE POINT WHERE VALLEYS WILL EVENTUALLY STAY SOCKED IN
ALL DAY. THAT COULD BE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY BUT CERTAINLY NO LATER
THAN FRIDAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SLO COUNTY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AS THAT NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT HIGHS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
22/400 AM.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATE COOLING EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY.
EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY, WHILE GEFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE MUCH DRIER. A COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.
A WARMING TREND WILL ESTABLISH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLUSTER
ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT NOSING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES WITH
HOW STRONG THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE. MOST FAVOR A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE CENTRAL
COAST. THE FORECAST GOES WITH NBM VALUES FOR THE CURRENT TIME.
AVIATION
23/0103Z.
AT 2315Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 11 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE IN REMAINING TAFS. TIMING OF FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE
OFF +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS AT KSMX
TONIGHT, AND A 20% CHANCE AT KBUR/KVNY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS AT KSMO/KLAX/KLGB.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHC OF A
19Z VFR TRANSITION. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF OVC008 CONDS
11Z-15Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
07Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF OVC004 CONDS 11Z-15Z.
MARINE
22/920 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION PZZ670, MOSTLY OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS. THEREFORE,
HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A SCA DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS PZZ673/676
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A 50-60% CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A 60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS ALL THE OUTER
WATERS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ENTIRE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...PHILLIPS/RAT
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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