772
FXUS66 KLOX 241101
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
401 AM PDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
23/926 AM.
A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH DRIZZLE WILL BE A STAPLE OF THE
FORECAST WITH CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO CLEAR FROM BEACHES EACH DAY.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)
24/401 AM.
THE MARINE LAYER WAS ABOUT 4500 FEET DEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS OF AROUND 7 MB
BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG, LOW CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD IN ALL AREAS
FROM THE COASTAL SLOPES SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. CLOUDS HAVE EVEN
PUSHED INTO THE FAR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA
VALLEY. THERE MAY BE DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO A POSITION ABOUT 600 NM WEST OF
NORTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT, EXPECT RATHER SLOW CLEARING TODAY. IN FACT, SKIES MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLEAR, ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
PT. CONCEPTION. WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LAYER, CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY CLEARING IN THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WED, GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL IN AREAS W OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOCALLY 12
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TONIGHT/FRI, TO A POSITION ABOUT 400 NM W OF PT. CONCEPTION FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN VERY DEEP, WITH LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND
THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE
SOME DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW
AND/OR INCOMPLETE CLEARING FRI. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES W OF THE MOUNTAINS ON FRI, WITH SIGNIFICANT
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD PT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT,
THEN IT IS FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE IN SAN LUIS OBISPO OR
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SAT MORNING. IT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF RAIN LATE FRI NIGHT ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. RAIN IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT, MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES, AND LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS VTU
AND L.A. COUNTIES. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE QUICKLY, WITH THE CHANCE CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION SAT EVENING. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING INSTABILITY ON SAT, AND THERE IS NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION. AT THIS POINT,
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES, WITH GENERALLY ONE TENTH TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS BE BETWEEN
4500 AND 5500 FEET SAT, AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO HIGH TO BRING SNOW TO HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE, BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)
23/218 PM.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NV SUNDAY MORNING BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES MAY
STILL BE CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT RAPIDLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS OUT BY
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW.
AVIATION
24/0016Z.
AT 2346Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 2700 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS. FLIGHT CAT CHANGES MAY BE
OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB,
KSBP, KSMX. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING FCST FOR SITES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM AS EARLY
AS 05Z OR AS LATE AS 09Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF CIGS REMAINING
AOA 022. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT REACHING
8 KT FROM 11Z-17Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NO
CLEARING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF CIGS REMAINING AOA 022.
MARINE
24/348 AM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE
IS A 60% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS FOR
THE WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION DOWN TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS THUR AFTERNOON/EVE. ALSO, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR PZZ676
IN THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT OR
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS LIKELY (70%)
SAT AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF SAN SIMEON THU AFTERNOON/EVE.
LOWER CHANCES AT 20% FRI AFTERNOON/EVE. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SCA WINDS DURING AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SAT THRU MON. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W-NW WINDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVE. LOWER CHANCES
AT 40% ACROSS SBA CHANNEL ON FRI. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY (>80% SBA CHANNEL, 50-60%
PZZ655). AT THIS TIME, SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY CONFINED TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL MON AFTERNOON/EVE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE WEEKEND.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 650. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...DB/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...BLACK
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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