605
FXUS66 KLOX 250206
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
706 PM PDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
24/132 PM.
A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A COOL
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE EACH MORNING, THEN SKIES WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR EACH AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY. AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH A WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)
24/208 PM.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS CLEARED BETTER TODAY, LIKELY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER INVERSION AND A 2-3MB OFFSHORE GRADIENT TREND. AND
WITH THAT CLEARING CAME A 1-3 DEGREE BUMP IN TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON THE MARINE
LAYER TONIGHT SHOULD DEEPEN BY AT LEAST 500-1000 FEET WITH CLOUDS
RETURNING TO ALL COAST AND VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AND
AGAIN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. AND WITH AN EVEN WEAKER INVERSION
IN PLACE TOMORROW CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES ARE IN
THE MORNING HOURS TO EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT COULD START AS
EARLY AS MIDNIGHT IN COASTAL SLO COUNTY. WITH VIRTUALLY ALL THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS NOW SUPPORTING RAIN ALMOST AREA-WIDE, POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO 60-80 PERCENT, EXCEPT LOWER ACROSS THE DESERT.
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AND UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS SLO/SB COUNTIES. SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN ADDED
AS WELL TO INTERIOR SLO/SB AND THE NORTHERN VENTURA MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CAMBRIA AND VANDENBERG. IF IT ENDS UP ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THAT AREA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE'S ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY THAT IT WOULDN'T A COMPLETE
SURPRISE IF A RANDOM SHOWER POPS UP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS.
LONG TERM (MON-THU)
24/210 PM.
AN IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON.
HOWEVER, A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS AS
HEIGHTS TREND UPWARD.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION
TUE WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS
AND UPPER 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WED, AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLING, ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION
25/0205Z.
AT 2351Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1600 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 6200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 C.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING TAFS WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. FLIGHT CATS MAY FREQUENTLY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
WHEN CIGS ARE PRESENT OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 03Z OR AS LATE AS 08Z. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT MAY BE AS EARLY 05Z OR AS LATE AS 09Z.
MARINE
24/126 PM.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW
WINDS FOR THE WATERS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY,
THEN THERE IS A 30% CHANCE SAT. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS
INCREASE (60-80%) SUN AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST TUES NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW
WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE NEAR SAN SIMEON
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-
ADVISORY FRI, THEN THERE IS A 30% CHANCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVE.
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS INCREASES DURING AFTERNOON/EVE
HOURS SUN THRU TUES (50-70% CHANCE).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY (70%
CHANCE) IN THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL TONIGHT, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL. THEN, SUB-
ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED FRI. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR
BRIEF SCA LEVEL WINDS SAT MORNING, THEN CONDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB
ADVISORY THROUGH SUN MORNING. THEN W-NW SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON THRU TUES NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS.
ACROSS THE WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW/MW/DB
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...DB
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