001
FXUS66 KLOX 260348
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
848 PM PDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
25/1202 PM.
AN UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)
25/841 PM.
***UPDATE***
FALLING HGTS AND INTERIOR CLOUDINESS BROUGHT MAX TEMPS DOWN BY 8
TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE MTNS, DESERTS AND INTERIOR VLYS TODAY.
THE COASTS AND VLYS DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. MOST HIGH TEMPS TODAY
ENDED UP 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. CURRENTLY, MOST OF THE
CSTS/VLYS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR.
ALL EYES ON A LATE SEASON STORM WHICH WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FORM THE
WSW AND WILL MOVE INTO SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AROUND 5AM AND THEN
VTA AND LA COUNTIES FROM 7AM TO 9AM. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW DOES PASS OVER SLO COUNTY AND WILL BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS. CURRENT RAINFALL
FCST (.25 TO .50 LOCALLY .80 FOOTHILLS) LOOKS GOOD.
IT SURE WILL BE COLD TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS BARELY SCRAPING TO 60
DEGREES OR 10 TO 15 LOCALLY 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND POPS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE LOW
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR LOMPOC SATURDAY MORNING, THEN FOLLOWING THE
TRANSVERSE RANGE EAST BEFORE EXITING LA COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT AND
TAKE ON A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE RAIN ARRIVING AT A SIMILAR TIME, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7AM
FROM SLO COUNTY DOWN THROUGH VENTURA COUNTY. THEN MOVING INTO LA
COUNTY BETWEEN 8 AND 10AM. RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND .80" IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. MOST OF
THE MORNING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL CHANGE TO A
SHOWERY PATTERN AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. WHILE SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE MINIMAL ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONGER UPLIFT AND A POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN THUNDERSTORM. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PEAK RAIN RATES AROUND A QUARTER INCH
PER HOUR, SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR ANY BURN AREA
DEBRIS FLOWS WITH THIS STORM. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE, THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH AND EAST.
WITH THE UPTICK IN RAIN AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ABOVE 5000 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH SNOW TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES. AT THIS TIME
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GRAPEVINE OVER
INTERSTATE 5, HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH
STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN SNOW REACHING THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS LOW AS 3500-4000 FEET.
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING (IF NOT
BEFORE) WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BOTH DAYS, BUT MORE SO
INLAND, THOUGH WILL STILL BE AT LEAST 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
25/1253 PM.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME WARMER
VALLEYS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MODELS SHOW ONSHORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER.
AVIATION
26/0029Z.
AT 2305Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 4900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 4 C.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS THERE IS 30 PERCENT
CHC OF NO CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ANY GIVEN SITE AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF
MVFR CIGS AS WELL.
RAIN ONSET AND ENDING MAY BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS AND RAIN
MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES. BRIEF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE MAIN RAINBAND HAS EXITED THE SITE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT060 CONDS LASTING UNTIL 15Z AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF BKN025
CONDS 09Z-15Z. RAIN COULD START AS EARLY AS 14Z OR AS LATE AS 16Z.
CIG AND VIS MAY VARY BETWEEN BKN025 AND BKN035 AND 3SM AND 6SM
DURING RAIN.THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN 8 KT EAST WIND
COMPONENT 12Z TO 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT060 CONDS LASTING UNTIL 15Z. CIG AND VIS MAY VARY BETWEEN
BKN025 AND BKN035 AND 3SM AND 6SM DURING RAIN.
MARINE
25/759 PM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND
GUSTS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ676 DURING AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON
SAT. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS INCREASE (60-90%) SUN
AFTERNOON THRU TUES NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SCA WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SUN THRU TUES (50-70%
CHANCE).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON SAT. THEREAFTER, CHANCES
INCREASE TO 60% ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
OFF THE LA AND OC COASTS ON SUNDAY, INCLUDING NEARSHORE. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SBA
CHANNEL MON AFTERNOON/EVE. MUCH LOWER CHANCES TUE THROUGH WED.
ACROSS THE WATERS, RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
AND IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10%) SAT OVER THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 353-376-377. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 378>380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...LEWIS/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...MW/DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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