357
FXUS66 KLOX 261136
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
436 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
26/436 AM.
AN UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY
WITH SNOW ABOVE 4500 OR 5000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MINOR
CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
26/430 AM.
A COLD BUT COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST TO
ITS EAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM, EXTENDING EASTWARD THEN ARCING
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW, WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST. ON SATELLITE, THIS SYSTEM LOOKED FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE, WITH A COMMA HEAD EXTENDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE UPPER LOW.
SINCE THE FRONT WILL PIVOT INTO NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION,
THERE WILL BE LESS TIME THAN USUAL BETWEEN THE ONSET OF RAIN IN
SLO COUNTY AND THAT IN L.A. COUNTY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SLO/SBA
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE, THE INTO VENTURA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN INTO L.A. COUNTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT A 3
TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WITH SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN, FOLLOWED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES
AND IN THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VTU COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN L.A.
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE MOSTLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH PER HOUR, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RATES OVER A THIRD OF AN
INCH PER HOUR IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES BY SUNSET, AND
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
IN GENERAL, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS, WITH LOCAL TOTALS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM THE MTNS OF SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY THRU NORTHERN VTU
COUNTY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS IN L.A. COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ABOVE 5000 OR 5500 FEET, WITH LOCAL TOTALS
TO 8 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY DOWN
TO 4500 FEET, EXCEPT DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN SBA COUNTY. THERE COULD
BE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON HIGHER PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE
5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE, BUT SINCE THIS IS LATE APRIL, THE ROADS MAY
BE TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO STICK. STILL, ANYONE TRAVELING
INTO THE MTNS TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
AND SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A RATHER GLOOMY
DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS UP TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAY BE RECORDED TODAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND
INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUN. SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA SUN, AND ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY, STRONG WEST WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE
HEIGHT RISES, SUNSHINE, AND SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY GRADIENTS,
THERE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN MOST AREAS SUN, THOUGH MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
A VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER, RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF WARMING MON, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. IN FACT, BY MON MAX TEMPS MAY GET BACK TO
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
25/1253 PM.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME WARMER
VALLEYS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MODELS SHOW ONSHORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER.
AVIATION
26/0029Z.
AT 2305Z AT KLAX, THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 4900 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 5500 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 4 C.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS THERE IS 30 PERCENT
CHC OF NO CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ANY GIVEN SITE AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF
MVFR CIGS AS WELL.
RAIN ONSET AND ENDING MAY BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 2 HOURS AND RAIN
MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES. BRIEF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE MAIN RAINBAND HAS EXITED THE SITE.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT060 CONDS LASTING UNTIL 15Z AND A 15 PERCENT CHC OF BKN025
CONDS 09Z-15Z. RAIN COULD START AS EARLY AS 14Z OR AS LATE AS 16Z.
CIG AND VIS MAY VARY BETWEEN BKN025 AND BKN035 AND 3SM AND 6SM
DURING RAIN.THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN 8 KT EAST WIND
COMPONENT 12Z TO 18Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT060 CONDS LASTING UNTIL 15Z. CIG AND VIS MAY VARY BETWEEN
BKN025 AND BKN035 AND 3SM AND 6SM DURING RAIN.
MARINE
26/428 AM.
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND
GUSTS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ676 DURING AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON
SAT. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS INCREASE (60-90%) SUN
AFTERNOON THRU TUES NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SCA WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SUN THRU TUES (50-80%
CHANCE).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CONDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE IS A
30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS ON SAT. THEREAFTER, CHANCES
INCREASE TO >80% ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL AND 50-60% FOR SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS OFF THE LA AND OC COASTS ON SUNDAY, INCLUDING
NEARSHORE. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL MON AFTERNOON/EVE. MUCH LOWER
CHANCES TUE THROUGH WED.
ACROSS THE WATERS, RAIN IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10%)
SAT OVER THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
SMALL HAIL. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA AT TIMES ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 353-376-377. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 378>380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...DB/MW
AVIATION...RORKE
MARINE...SMITH/BLACK
SYNOPSIS...DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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