313
FXUS66 KLOX 261811
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1111 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
26/436 AM.
AN UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY
WITH SNOW ABOVE 4500 OR 5000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MINOR
CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)
26/1002 AM.
***UPDATE***
THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND HAS MOVED INTO LA COUNTY AS OF 945AM WITH
THE REST OF THE CWA NOW IN A SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW IS GOING
TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR VANDENBERG BETWEEN 10AM AND 12PM TODAY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WITH A 3-6" OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE
VBG SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED 500MB TEMPS OF -26 ALREADY AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOSE TO -30 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SLO
AND SB COUNTIES SO THE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
GOOD THERE. RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST IN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY WITH A FEW REPORTS OF .75 IN THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. MOST
OTHER AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH WITH
PEAK RAIN RATES AROUND A QUARTER INCH.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES AND IN THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VTU COUNTY AND
NORTHWESTERN L.A. COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE MOSTLY LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RATES OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES BY SUNSET, AND ACROSS L.A. COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
IN GENERAL, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS
OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS, WITH LOCAL TOTALS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM THE MTNS OF SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY THRU NORTHERN VTU
COUNTY AND INTO THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS IN L.A. COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ABOVE 5000 OR 5500 FEET, WITH LOCAL TOTALS
TO 8 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY DOWN
TO 4500 FEET, EXCEPT DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN SBA COUNTY. THERE COULD
BE SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON HIGHER PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE
5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE, BUT SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL, THE ROADS MAY
BE TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO STICK. STILL, ANYONE TRAVELING
INTO THE MTNS TODAY OR TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS
AND SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A RATHER GLOOMY
DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS UP TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAY BE RECORDED TODAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND
INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUN. SKIES WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA SUN, AND ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY, STRONG WEST WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEIGHT RISES, SUNSHINE, AND SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
GRADIENTS, THERE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN MOST AREAS SUN,
THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
A VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER, RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF WARMING MON, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. IN FACT, BY MON MAX TEMPS MAY GET BACK TO
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)
26/508 AM.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC TUE,
AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, MAX TEMPS MAY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER VALLEYS, AND IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO
COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY AREAS, ALONG WITH SOME COOLING WEST OF THE
MTNS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OR UPPER LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THU AND FRI, WITH NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS, AND MAX TEMPS LIKELY A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
26/1810Z.
AT 1717Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER AROUND 15,000 FT
DEEP.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS FOR KPMD AND KWJF.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF TAFS. THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS MOVED EAST OF MOST TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF LA COUNTY. -SHRA MAY
IMPACT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
COASTAL SITES. CONDS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AT POINTS AS
THERE ARE SEVERAL CLOUD DECKS. LIFR TO MVFR CONDS CAN OCCUR
DURING ANY PERIOD OF SHRA/RA, BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE MAIN RAIN BAND HAS MOVED
ON, BUT SPOTTY -SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IFR
TO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY PERIODS OF RAIN. BKN025-050
LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT EAST WIND
COMPONENT EXPECTED.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA TO RA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
19Z, THEN -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. LOWER CHANCES FOR -SHRA
EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A STILL A
10-20% CHANCE. IFR TO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY PERIODS
OF RAIN. BKN015-050 LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
26/824 AM.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
FOR THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WIND
GUSTS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ676 THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCA CONDS INCREASE (60-90%) SUN AFTERNOON
THRU TUES NIGHT.
FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUN MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS SUN THRU TUES
(50-80% CHANCE).
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE. THEREAFTER, CHANCES INCREASE TO >80% ACROSS THE
SBA CHANNEL AND 50-60% FOR SOUTHERN INNER WATERS OFF THE LA AND OC
COASTS ON SUNDAY, INCLUDING NEARSHORE. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE
OF SCA LEVEL WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SBA CHANNEL MON
AFTERNOON/EVE. MUCH LOWER CHANCES TUE THROUGH WED.
ACROSS THE WATERS, RAIN IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10%)
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, SEAS COULD
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 353-376-377. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 378>380. (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...LEWIS
MARINE...BLACK/LEWIS
SYNOPSIS...DB
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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