039
FXUS66 KLOX 132117
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
217 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/111 PM.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN. A COOLING
TREND WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
13/154 PM.
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAKENING AND HEIGHTS RISING FOLLOWING TODAY'S TROUGH PASSAGE
WHICH WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LESS
AFTERNOON WIND. MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT LIKE TODAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER AND MORE
EXPANSIVE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES OF
THIS PATTERN. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. IN ADDITION, STRATUS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
13/217 PM.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BUT MOST OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP SOME FORM OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS EVEN MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT EVEN INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, MORE THAN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TOWARDS RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY ALMOST ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH WARMER VALLEYS APPROACHING
90. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS WELL LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
13/1858Z.
AROUND 18Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR KPMD, KWJF, KVNY, AND KBUR.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WITH A 20-50 MVFR TO IFR LOW
CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06-16Z.
KLAX....LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF BKN015
CIGS AFTER 08Z WED. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN EAST WIND COMPONENT
REMAINING UNDER 7 KTS WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEFLY
REACHING 7 KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SW TO W CROSS WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.
MARINE
13/201 PM.
STEEP SEAS WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY (UP TO 10+ FEET FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND PZZ645,
AND APPROACHING 7 TO 9 FEET FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION), WITH GENERALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MOST VESSELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL SEE
SOME LULLS, STEEP SEAS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR FOCUSED ON THE WATERS FROM EASTERN
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND TO ANACAPA ISLAND, BUT WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND SOUTH TO
POINT DUME.
AFTER TODAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS WILL STILL CONTINUE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY (80 PERCENT CHANCE) RETURN
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND OUTER WATERS.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 340-341-346-347-354-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 349>352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MUNROE
MARINE...MUNROE/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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