816
FXUS66 KLOX 140428
AFDLOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
928 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/757 PM.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A
COOLING TREND WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)
13/927 PM.
***UPDATE***
THE MAIN STORY TODAY HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY AREAS, AS A
STRONGER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PUSHES A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COASTAL AREAS SAW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS TONIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF ALONG THE
COASTS, BUT CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST LOOK ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR ALSO LOOK WINDY, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A VERY
DISRUPTED CLOUD LAYER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, AND EXPECTING MORE
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CALIFORNIA VALLEY ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN LA COUNTY, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THE
AREA WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER BENIGN TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S TO LOW
70S, AND COOLER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW RAPIDLY PASSES
TO THE EAST, A WARMER AIRMASS RETURNS ALLOWING FOR 5 TO 10 DEGREES
OF WARMING FROM THE VALLEYS TO THE DESERTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE WEAKENING AND HEIGHTS RISING FOLLOWING TODAY'S TROUGH PASSAGE
WHICH WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LESS
AFTERNOON WIND. MARINE LAYER STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT LIKE TODAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER AND MORE
EXPANSIVE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES OF
THIS PATTERN. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. IN ADDITION, STRATUS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)
13/217 PM.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BUT MOST OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
KEEP SOME FORM OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS EVEN MAINTAIN SOME CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT EVEN INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, MORE THAN HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION TOWARDS RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY ALMOST ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH WARMER VALLEYS APPROACHING
90. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS WELL LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
14/0303Z.
AROUND 00Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR KPMD, KSBA, KWJF, KVNY, AND
KBUR. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WITH A 20-50 MVFR TO
IFR LOW CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 07-16Z. END TIMES OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
MAY BE OFF BY 2-3 HOURS.
KLAX....LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF BKN015 CIGS FROM 11 TO 15Z WED. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN EAST WIND
COMPONENT REMAINING UNDER 7 KTS WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BRIEFLY REACHING 7 KT SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-16Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
13/810 PM.
WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER THE WATERS AND GALES HAVE BEEN EXPIRED,
BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY(40-50% CHANCE)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, SCA WINDS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH A DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
CENTRAL COAST WATERS AND SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STEEP SEAS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY (60-80 PERCENT CHANCE) RETURN
THIS COMING WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND OUTER WATERS. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD,
LIKELY RISING ABOVE 10 FEET BY SUNDAY.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 349>352. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 645-655-670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
650-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PUBLIC...PHILLIPS/MW
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
MARINE...CILIBERTI
SYNOPSIS...MW/SMITH
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX
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